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Hidden Markov models with t components. Increased persistence and other aspects

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  • Jan Bulla

Abstract

Hidden Markov models have been applied in many different fields, including econometrics and finance. However, the lion's share of the investigated models concerns Markovian mixtures of Gaussian distributions. We present an extension to conditional t-distributions, including models with unequal distribution types in different states. It is shown that the extended models, on the one hand, reproduce various stylized facts of daily returns better than the common Gaussian model. On the other hand, robustness to outliers and persistence of the visited states increases significantly.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14697681003685563
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Quantitative Finance.

Volume (Year): 11 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 459-475

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Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:11:y:2010:i:3:p:459-475

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Related research

Keywords: Hidden Markov model; Markov-switching model; State persistence; t-distribution; Daily returns;

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References

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  1. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
  2. Jan Bulla & Andreas Berzel, 2008. "Computational issues in parameter estimation for stationary hidden Markov models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-18, January.
  3. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December.
  4. C. W. J. GRANGER & Zhuanxin DING, 1995. "Some Properties of Absolute Return: An Alternative Measure of Risk," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 40, pages 67-91.
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  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bulla, Jan & Bulla, Ingo, 2006. "Stylized facts of financial time series and hidden semi-Markov models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 2192-2209, December.
  9. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
  10. Tobias Rydén & Timo Teräsvirta & Stefan Åsbrink, 1998. "Stylized facts of daily return series and the hidden Markov model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 217-244.
  11. Robert Breunig & Serinah Najarian & Adrian Pagan, 2003. "Specification Testing of Markov Switching Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 703-725, December.
  12. Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, 2002. "A regime-switching approach to the study of speculative attacks: A focus on EMS crises," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 299-334.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  14. Richard D. F. Harris & C. Coskun Küçüközmen, 2001. "The Empirical Distribution of UK and US Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5-6), pages 715-740.
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Cited by:
  1. M. Bernardi & L. Petrella, 2014. "Interconnected risk contributions: an heavy-tail approach to analyse US financial sectors," Papers 1401.6408, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.
  2. Trojan, Sebastian, 2013. "Regime Switching Stochastic Volatility with Skew, Fat Tails and Leverage using Returns and Realized Volatility Contemporaneously," Economics Working Paper Series 1341, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.

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