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Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Jude Yuen

Abstract

Standard economic models predict that the choice of an exchange rate regime has important implications for the interdependency of national monetary policies, which is sometimes measured by the degree of inflation transmission across borders. In this paper, we examine how inflation rates in two small open economies, namely Hong Kong and Singapore, interact with those in the U.S. It is found that the price levels in these three economies are cointegrated. Thus, a vector error correction model is used to study the inflation dynamics. It is found that Hong Kong and Singapore inflation rates, but not the U.S. one, respond to the error correction term. Compared with Singapore, the Hong Kong inflation rate is more responsive to U.S. price shocks. The different responses to U.S. price shocks are consistent with the difference in exchange rate regimes adopted by the two economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 700.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_700

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Keywords: exchange rate regime; inflation transmission mechanism; cointegration; common feature; codependence;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jian Yang & Hui Guo & Zijun Wang, 2004. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: a data-determined VAR analysis," Working Papers 2004-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chien, Mei-Se, 2010. "Dynamic modelling of energy consumption, capital stock, and real income in G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 564-581, May.
  3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2008. "Does the Chinese interest rate follow the US interest rate?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 53-67.
  4. Chen, Jun & Tse, Yiuman & Williams, Michael, 2009. "Trading location and equity returns: Evidence from US trading of British cross-listed firms," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 729-741, December.
  5. Ramazan Sari & Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Income and Education in Turkey: A Multivariate Analysis," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 181-196.
  6. Lukach, R. & Plasmans, J.E.J., 2002. "Measuring Knowledge Spillovers using Patent Citations: Evidence from the Belgian Firm's Data," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-92281, Tilburg University.
  7. Valente, Giorgio, 2009. "International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 920-940, October.
  8. Goujon, Michael, 2006. "Fighting inflation in a dollarized economy: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 564-581, September.
  9. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "The growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 889-898, February.
  10. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Commodity Prices and Inflation in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 10/135, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Chan, Leo & Lien, Donald & Weng, Wenlong, 2008. "Financial interdependence between Hong Kong and the US: A band spectrum approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 507-516, October.
  12. Luke Willard & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2006. "Does Inflation in China Affect the United States and Japan?," IMF Working Papers 06/36, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Chang, Kuang Liang & Chen, Nan Kuang & Leung, Charles Ka Yui, 2011. "The Dynamics of Housing Returns in Singapore: How Important are the International Transmission Mechanisms?," MPRA Paper 32255, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Thams, Andreas, 2007. "Inflation Transmission in the EMU: A Markov-Switching VECM Analysis," MPRA Paper 1643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  15. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Soytas, Ugur, 2010. "Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 351-362, March.

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