Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Yin-Wong Cheung

Abstract

Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and Granger-caused by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and are mainly responsible for her output uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of domestic and foreign output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the U.S. does not appear to exert undue influences on Hong Kong.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2001/wp-cesifo-2001-05/cesifo_wp482.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 482.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_482

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Email:
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Common trends/cycles; transmission mechanism; structural determinants;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 1999. "An analysis of German effects on the Austrian business cycle," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 522-531, September.
  2. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  3. Helge Berger & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 263, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-80, July.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
  8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  10. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 1997. "Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
  12. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:530-36 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1989. "International evidence on the persistence of economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 319-333, March.
  14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Westermann, Frank, 2000. "Does Austria Respond to the German or the US Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 33-42, February.
  15. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  16. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1985. "Real Aspects of Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Collapsing Fixed Rates," NBER Working Papers 1603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lucke, Bernd, 1998. "Productivity shocks in a sectoral real business cycle model for West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 311-327, February.
  18. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1994. "Aggregate output dynamics in the twentieth century," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 15-22, May.
  20. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Output dynamics of the G7 countries--stochastic trends and cyclical movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2239-2247.
  21. Richard C. Marston, 1985. "Stabilization Policies in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 1117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Cheung, Ying-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian, 1995. "Pacific-Basin stock markets and real activity," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 143-143, May.
  23. Steven N. Durlauf & Danny T. Quah, 1998. "The New Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 98-01-012, Santa Fe Institute.
  24. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-81, May.
  25. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November.
  26. Canova, Fabio & Dellas, Harris, 1993. "Trade interdependence and the international business cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 23-47, February.
  27. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  28. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  29. Clive, W.J. & Lin, Jin-Lung, 1995. "Causality in the Long Run," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 530-536, June.
  30. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1983. "Flexible Exchange Rates and Interdependence," NBER Working Papers 1035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Marston, Richard C., 1985. "Stabilization policies in open economies," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 859-916 Elsevier.
  33. Hutchison, Michael & Walsh, Carl E., 1992. "Empirical evidence on the insulation properties of fixed and flexible exchange rates : The Japanese experience," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 241-263, May.
  34. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
  2. Ibrahim, M.H, 2004. "A VAR Analysis of US and Japanese Effects on Malaysian Aggregate and Sectoral Output," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 5-28.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_482. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.