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Real Aspects of Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Collapsing Fixed Rates

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Author Info
Robert P. Flood
Robert J. Hodrick

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Abstract

Typical evaluations of the choice of exchange rate regime employ a criterion function that depends on the real performance of the economy, and they focus on regimes that are expected to last indefinitely. This latter feature is strongly contradicted by the transitory nature of actual regimes.This paper extends the recent literature on collapses of fixed exchange rate regimes with exogenous real sectors to examine how the predictions of two popular models for the determination of some real economic variables must be modified when agents rationally perceive that the fixed rate regime will be transitory. The models studied are simple stochastic versions of the models in Dornbusch (1976) and Flood and Marion (1982).

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1603.

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Date of creation: May 1985
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1603

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kimbrough, Kent P., 1983. "The information content of the exchange rate and the stability of real output under alternative exchange-rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 27-38, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Aizenman, Joshua & Frenkel, Jacob A, 1985. "Optimal Wage Indexation, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 402-23, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Robert P. Flood & Peter M. Garber, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," NBER Working Papers 0626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  6. Thomas Willett & Edward Tower, 1970. "Currency areas and exchange-rate flexibility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 105(1), pages 48-65, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Flood, Robert P, 1979. "Capital Mobility and the Choice of Exchange Rate System," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(2), pages 405-16, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Karni, Edi, 1983. "On Optimal Wage Indexation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 282-92, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1983. "Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Interventions in a Small Open Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 574-92, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Eaton, Jonathan, 1985. "Optimal and time consistent exchange-rate management in an overlapping-generations economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 83-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Weber, Warren E, 1981. "Output Variability under Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 733-51, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1987. "Indexation and Incomes Policy: A Study of Wage Adjustment in Unionized Manufacturing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 391-412, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Flood, Robert P & Marion, Nancy Peregrim, 1982. "The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimes with Optimal Indexing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 43-66, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Lapan, Harvey E. & Enders, Walter, 1980. "Random disturbances and the choice of exchange regimes in an intergenerational model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 263-283, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1999. "The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," NBER Working Papers 6992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Patrick N. Osakwe & Lawrence L. Schembri, 1999. "Real Effects of Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: An Application to Mexico," Carleton Economic Papers 99-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Linda S. Goldberg, 1988. "Collapsing Exchange Rate Regimes: Shocks and Biases," NBER Working Papers 2702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Patrick N. Osakwe, 2002. "Currency Fluctuations, Liability Dollarization, and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 02-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2001. "Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Terence D.Agbeyegbe & Patrick N. Osakwe, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Choice of Regimes in Emerging Markets," Hunter College Department of Economics Working Papers 404, Hunter College: Department of Economics, revised 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Charles Engel, 2000. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy:The Influence of Price-Setting and Asset Markets," Working Papers 0020, University of Washington, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2002. "Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis," Macroeconomics Working Papers 175, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Goldberg, Linda S., 1990. "Predicting Exchange Rate Crises: Mexico Revisited," Working Papers 90-11, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Giugale, Marcelo & Korobow, Adam, 2000. "Shock persistence and the choice of foreign exchange regime - an empirical note from Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2371, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Andrew K. Rose, 1995. "After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-Temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?," NBER Working Papers 5219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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