Greenback Resumption and Silver Risk: The Economics and Politics of Monetary Regime Change in the United States, 1862-1900
AbstractThis paper begins by developing a framework for price and interest rate determination under suspension of convertibility during the national banking period. The model is applied to interpret unanticipated price level shocks and expected deflation during the period of green back inconvertibility( 1862-1879), and to explain forward discounts on the dollar during the 1890s, which saw substantial risk of a return to suspension of convertibility. Special features of dollar value risk during the 1890s, including an endogenous supply of government licensed money (national bank notes), and a time-varying probability of a long-run switch to silver, require a different model of speculative attack from the standard approach which assumes a government-controlled supply of money. The salient empirical findings of the paper are: (1) Ex ante real interest rates were higher than nominal interest rates during the 1870s, and lower than nominal interest rates during the silver-risk episodes of the mid-1890s. (2) Runs on the dollar in the 1890s mainly reflected concerns about short-run convertibility, and small depreciation of the dollar contingent on suspension, rather than a likely immediate switch from gold to a permanently depreciated silver standard. (3) Expected deflation in the 1870s accounts for the apparent weakness of the procyclicality of prices, using annual data for the national banking period. Once one takes account of shifting expectations of inflation, unanticipated movements in prices and output are much more closely related.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4166.
Date of creation: Sep 1992
Date of revision:
Note: DAE ME
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-09-10 (All new papers)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Newby, E., 2008.
"The Suspension of the Gold Standard as Sustainable Monetary Policy,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0856, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Newby, Elisa, 2012. "The suspension of the gold standard as sustainable monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1498-1519.
- Elisa Newby, 2009. " The Suspension of the Gold Standard as Sustainable Monetary Policy," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0907, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
- Christopher Hanes & John A. James, 2003. "Wage Adjustment Under Low Inflation: Evidence from U.S. History," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1414-1424, September.
- Michael Bordo & Christopher Meissner, 2005.
"Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
11173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Financial Crises, 1880–1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," NBER Chapters, in: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises, pages 139-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher M Meissner & Michael D Bordo, 2006. "Financial Crises, 1880-1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt," WEF Working Papers 0002, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
- Max Meulemann & Martin Uebele & Bernd Wilfling, 2012.
"The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis,"
Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series
gd12-251, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Max Meulemann & Martin Uebele & Bernd Wilfling, 2011. "The Restoration of the Gold Standard after the US Civil War: A Volatility Analysis," CQE Working Papers 2011, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
- Hugh Rockoff, 1999.
"How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?,"
Departmental Working Papers
199910, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Hugh Rockoff, 2000. "How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?," NBER Historical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.