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Real aspects of exchange rate regime choice with collapsing fixed rates

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  • Flood, Robert P.
  • Hodrick, Robert J.

Abstract

Typical evaluations of the choice of exchange rate regime employ a criterion function that depends on the real performance of the economy, and they focus on regimes that are expected to last indefinitely. This latter feature is strongly contradicted by the transitory nature of actual regimes.This paper extends the recent literature on collapses of fixed exchange rate regimes with exogenous real sectors to examine how the predictions of two popular models for the determination of some real economic variables must be modified when agents rationally perceive that the fixed rate regime will be transitory. The models studied are simple stochastic versions of the models in Dornbusch (1976) and Flood and Marion (1982).

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (1986)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (November)
Pages: 215-232

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:21:y:1986:i:3-4:p:215-232

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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References

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  1. Lapan, Harvey E. & Enders, Walter, 1980. "Random disturbances and the choice of exchange regimes in an intergenerational model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 263-283, May.
  2. Robert P. Flood & Nancy Peregrim Marion, 1980. "The Transmission of Disturbances under Alternative Exchange-Rate Regimeswith Optimal Indexing," NBER Working Papers 0500, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 1987. "Indexation and Incomes Policy: A Study of Wage Adjustment in Unionized Manufacturing," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(3), pages 391-412, July.
  4. Jonathan Eaton, 1983. "Optimal and Time Consistent Exchange Rate Management in an Overlapping Generations Economy," NBER Working Papers 1196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 537-51, May.
  6. Joshua Aizenman & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1984. "Optimal Wage Indexation, Foreign-Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Karni, Edi, 1983. "On Optimal Wage Indexation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 282-92, April.
  8. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-48, August.
  9. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
  10. Kimbrough, Kent P., 1983. "The information content of the exchange rate and the stability of real output under alternative exchange-rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 27-38, April.
  11. Flood, Robert P, 1979. "Capital Mobility and the Choice of Exchange Rate System," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(2), pages 405-16, June.
  12. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
  13. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1983. "Wage Indexation and Exchange Market Interventions in a Small Open Economy," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 574-92, November.
  14. Thomas Willett & Edward Tower, 1970. "Currency areas and exchange-rate flexibility," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 105(1), pages 48-65, September.
  15. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  16. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  17. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  18. Weber, Warren E, 1981. "Output Variability under Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 733-51, August.
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