IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v28y2003i1p141-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture) and the three corresponding sectoral stock market indexes. It is found that data with and without seasonal adjustment give mixed results on the long-run interaction between the sectoral indexes. Compared with data that are non-seasonally adjusted, the adjusted data offer weaker evidence on the cointegration relationship between a) the sectoral output indexes, b) sectoral stock indexes, and c) individual pairs of real and financial indexes. On short-run comovement, seasonally adjusted data offer stronger evidence on the presence of common synchronized and non-synchronized cyclical components. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 141-156, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:1:p:141-156
    DOI: 10.1007/s001810100123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s001810100123
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s001810100123?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stockman, Alan C., 1988. "Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 387-409.
    2. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
    3. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Cubadda, Gianluca, 1999. "Common Cycles in Seasonal Non-stationary Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 273-291, May-June.
    5. Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990. "Seasonal integration and cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
    6. Hecq, Alain, 1998. "Does seasonal adjustment induce common cycles?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 289-297, June.
    7. Steven N. Durlauf, 1989. "Output Persistence, Economic Structure, and the Choice of Stabilization Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 69-136.
    8. Lucke, Bernd, 1998. "Productivity shocks in a sectoral real business cycle model for West Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 311-327, February.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Hylleberg, Svend, 1996. "Common Seasonal Features: Global Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 615-630, November.
    10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    11. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    13. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216.
    14. S. Lael Brainard & David M. Cutler, 1993. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 219-243.
    15. Entorf, Horst, 1991. "Real business cycles under test : A multi-country, multi-sector exercise," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 933-960, May.
    16. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    17. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    18. Vahid, Farshid & Engle, Robert F., 1997. "Codependent cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 199-221, October.
    19. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España.
    20. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
    21. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-380, October.
    22. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    24. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    25. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    26. Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
    27. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
    28. Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-395, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lindenberg, Nannette & Westermann, Frank, 2012. "Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1125-1140.
    2. Akdi, Yilmaz & Berument, Hakan & Mümin Cilasun, Seyit, 2006. "The relationship between different price indices: Evidence from Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 483-492.
    3. Antonio E. Noriega, 2004. "Sector-Level Disaggregate Stochastic Trends in Mexico’s Real Output," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 29-42, January-J.
    4. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    5. Berument Hakan & Akdi Yilmaz & Atakan Cemal, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Istanbul Stock Exchange Sub-Indexes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2011. "Modelling comovements of economic time series: a selective survey," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 71(2), pages 267-294.
    2. Berument Hakan & Akdi Yilmaz & Atakan Cemal, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Istanbul Stock Exchange Sub-Indexes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Output dynamics of the G7 countries--stochastic trends and cyclical movements," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2239-2247.
    4. Jorge Herrera Hernández, 2004. "Business cycles in Mexico and the United States: Do they share common movements?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 303-323, November.
    5. Gianluca Cubadda, 2001. "Common Features In Time Series With Both Deterministic And Stochastic Seasonality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 201-216.
    6. Lindenberg, Nannette & Westermann, Frank, 2012. "Common trends and common cycles among interest rates of the G7-countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1125-1140.
    7. Athanasopoulos, George & Issler, João Victor & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho, 2005. "Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 589, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    8. Harvey, David I. & Mills, Terence C., 2002. "Common features in UK sectoral output," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 91-104, January.
    9. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2004. "An Output Perspective on a Northeast Asia Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1250, CESifo.
    11. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "The effect of data transformation on common cycle, cointegration, and unit root tests: Monte Carlo results and a simple test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 195-229, May.
    12. Robert F. Engle & Joao Victor Issler, 1993. "Estimating Sectoral Cycles Using Cointegration and Common Features," NBER Working Papers 4529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2000. "Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 112000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    14. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
    15. Nannette Lindenberg & Frank Westermann, 2009. "How Strong is the Case for Dollarization in Costa Rica? A Note on the Business Cycle Comovements with the United States," IEER Working Papers 79, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    16. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
    17. repec:fgv:epgewp:736 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Marco Centoni & Gianluca Cubadda, 2015. "Common Feature Analysis of Economic Time Series: An Overview and Recent Developments," CEIS Research Paper 355, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 05 Oct 2015.
    19. Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2004. "The Suitability of a Greater China Currency Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1192, CESifo.
    20. Li, Xiao-Lin & Chang, Tsangyao & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "The co-movement and causality between the U.S. housing and stock markets in the time and frequency domains," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 220-233.
    21. Carlino, Gerald A. & DeFina, Robert H., 2004. "How strong is co-movement in employment over the business cycle? Evidence from state/sector data," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 298-315, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Key words: Sectoral Cycles; Cointegration; Common Features; Codependence; Seasonality; JEL classification: E32; C32;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:1:p:141-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.