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Sector-Level Disaggregate Stochastic Trends in Mexico’s Real Output

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  • Antonio E. Noriega

    ()
    (Department of Econometrics, Escuela de Economía, Universidad de Guanajuato)

Abstract

Our aim is to examine whether sectorial production shocks have predominated in Mexico’s long annual real output, and whether shocks from different sectors are correlated. We study the long-run movement and comovements of 6 production sectors, using long, low frequency data for the Mexican economy from 1921 to 1993 and Johansen’s (1991, 1995) method to test for cointegration, that is, the possibility of common stochastic shocks driving growth among sectors. Under cointegration, the idiosyncratic sectorial shocks cancel out and vanish, giving rise to a (possibly multiple) stochastic growth component common to all (some) sectors. We show that the sources of permanent innovations in Mexico’s real output are more likely to come from sector-group-specific sources rather than from either independent sector-specific technological shocks, or common aggregate permanent innovations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by in its journal Economia Mexicana NUEVA EPOCA.

Volume (Year): XIII (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January-June)
Pages: 29-42

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Handle: RePEc:emc:ecomex:v:13:y:2004:i:1:p:29-42

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Related research

Keywords: Sectorial Production; Sequential Unit Root Testing; Cointegration; Common Trends;

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  1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
  2. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
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  4. Richard Startz, 1998. "Growth States and Shocks," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0064, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  5. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
  6. DeJong, David N. & Nankervis, John C. & Savin, N. E. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1992. "The power problems of unit root test in time series with autoregressive errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 323-343.
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  8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  9. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992. "Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model," Discussion Papers 92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  10. Cheng Hsiao, 1997. "Cointegration and Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 647-670, May.
  11. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December.
  12. Norrbin, S. C., 1995. "Disaggregate stochastic trends in industrial production," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 327-333, March.
  13. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
  14. Steven N. Durlauf, 1989. "Output Persistence, Economic Structure, and the Choice of Stabilization Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 69-136.
  15. Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
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