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The Inter-War Gold Exchange Standard: Credibility and Monetary Independence

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  • Michael D. Bordo
  • Ronald MacDonald

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the operation of the inter-war gold exchange standard to see if the evident credibility of the system conferred on participating central banks the ability to pursue independent monetary policies. To answer this question we econometrically analyze two key parity, or arbitrage, conditions, namely uncovered interest rate parity and a yield gap relationship. We find that there were both long- and short-run deviations from the arbitrage conditions. The use to which this policy independence was put is analyzed in the context of a multivariate system, which includes reaction function variables.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8429.

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Date of creation: Aug 2001
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Publication status: published as Bordo, Michael D. and Ronald MacDonald. "Interest Rate Interactions In The Classical Gold Standard, 1880-1914: Was There Any Monetary Independence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, March 2005, v52(2): 307-327
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8429

Note: DAE ME
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  1. Officer,Lawrence H., 2007. "Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521038218.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  4. Svensson, L.E.O., 1992. "Why Exchange Rate Bands? Monetary Independence in Spite of Fixed Exchange Rates," Papers, Stockholm - International Economic Studies 521, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  6. Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," Scholarly Articles 3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-45, September.
  9. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  10. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1994. "Identification of the long-run and the short-run structure an application to the ISLM model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 7-36, July.
  12. Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  14. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  15. Hallwood, C. Paul & MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 1997. "Crash! Expectational Aspects of the Departures of the United Kingdom and the United States from the Inter-War Gold Standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 174-194, April.
  16. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Michael Bordo & Michael Edelstein, 1999. "Was Adherence to the Gold Standard a "Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval" During the Interwar Period?," NBER Working Papers 7186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Baptiste Desquilbet & Nikolay Nenovsky, 2005. "Confiance et ajustement dans les régimes d'étalon-or et de caisse d'émission," Post-Print, HAL halshs-00008096, HAL.
  2. António Portugal Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2010. "Exchange Rate Target Zones: A Survey of the Literature," GEMF Working Papers 2010-14, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  3. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
  4. Flandreau, Marc & Komlos, John, 2005. "Target Zones in Theory and History: Credibility, Efficiency, and Policy Autonomy," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5199, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Marc Flandreau & John Komlos, 2001. "How to Run a Target Zone? Age Old Lessons from an Austro-Hungarian Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 556, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Pablo Martín-Aceña & Elena Martínez Ruiz & Pilar Nogues-Marco, 2011. "Floating against the tide : Spanish monetary policy, 1870-1931," Working Papers in Economic History wp11-10, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones.
  7. Pedro BAÇÃO & António Portugal DUARTE & Mariana SIMÕES, 2013. "The International Monetary System in Flux: Overview and Prospects," Chapters of Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy book, in: Rajmund Mirdala (ed.), Financial Aspects of Recent Trends in the Global Economy, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 192-206 ASERS Publishing.
  8. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Mazouz, Khelifa, 2014. "Does gold offer a better protection against losses in sovereign debt bonds than other metals?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 507-521.

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