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Hong Kong Output Dynamics: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung

    (University of California, Santa Cruz)

Abstract

Advanced statistical techniques are used to analyze Hong Kong output dynamics. Hong Kong, Japan and the U.S. are found to share some common long-term and short-term cyclical variations. While the Hong Kong economy is susceptible to external shocks and is "Granger-caused" by the other two economies, local factors account for a large proportion of output growth variability and are mainly responsible for output uncertainty. On the transmission mechanism, the selected trade and financial variables have incremental explanatory power but do not lessen the ability of domestic and foreign output variables to explain Hong Kong growth dynamics. Interestingly, the U.S. does not appear to exert undue influence on Hong Kong.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 112000.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:112000

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Keywords: Common Trends/Cycles; Transmission Mechanism; Structural Determinants;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
  2. Ibrahim, M.H, 2004. "A VAR Analysis of US and Japanese Effects on Malaysian Aggregate and Sectoral Output," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 5-28.

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