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Flight capital as a portfolio choice

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  • Collier, Paul
  • Hoeffler, Anke
  • Pattillo, Catherine

Abstract

The authors examine flight capital in the context of portfolio choice. They estimate the stock of flight capital held abroad and compare it with the stock of real (nonfinancial) capital held within each country. For 51 countries they construct estimates (as of 1990) of private domestic capital and flight capital - which combined add up to domestic wealth. There are large regional differences in the proportion of private wealth that is held abroad, ranging from 3 percent in South Asia to 39 percent in Africa. They explain differences in portfolio choice in terms of the capital to labor ratio, indebtedness, exchange rate distortions, and risk ratings - all proxies for differences in the risk-adjusted rate of return on capital. They then apply the results to four policy questions in which private portfolio choices are potentially important: the effect of the East Asian crisis on domestic capital outflows; spillovers; the effect of HIPC debt relief on capital repatriation; and why Africa has so much of its private wealth outside the continent. Their conclusions: 1) The four most severely affected East Asian countries will eventually lose about $250 billion in domestic wealth as a result of the deterioration in risk between March 1997 and September 1998. 2) They found some support for a spillover model. 3) The effect of the HIPC debt relief initiative on capital repatriation will vary massively between HIPC-eligible countries. 4) Africa has by far the lowest capital per worker, which makes massive capital flight from Africa all the more distinctive. Three variables explain capital flight in Africa: exchange rate overvaluation, adverse investor risk ratings, and high indebtedness.

Suggested Citation

  • Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Flight capital as a portfolio choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2066, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2066
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Easterly, William R & Pack, Howard, 2003. "Low Investment Is Not the Constraint on African Development," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 547-571, April.
    2. Yin‐Wong Cheung & XingWang Qian, 2010. "Capital Flight: China's Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 227-247, May.
    3. Easterly, William, 2002. "How Did Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Become Heavily Indebted? Reviewing Two Decades of Debt Relief," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1677-1696, October.
    4. Dyendelayi, Isaac, 2000. "Analyse de Fuite des Capitaux en Afrique Subsaharienne : Cas de la République Démocratique du Congo (2000 – 2018) [Analysis of Capital Flight in Sub-Saharan Africa: Case of Democratic Republic of C," MPRA Paper 110335, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Dec 2018.
    5. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2010. "Latin American Growth-Inequality Trade-Offs: The Impact of Insurgence and Independence," NBER Working Papers 15680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Christopher J. Green & Victor Murinde, 2003. "Flow of funds: implications for research on financial sector development and the real economy," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(8), pages 1015-1036.
    7. Jan Dehn, 2000. "Private Investment in Developing Countries: The Effects of Commodity Shocks and Uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2000-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Arnaud Bourgain & Patrice Pieretti & Skerdilajda Zanaj, 2009. "International Financial competition and bank risk-taking in emerging economies," DEM Discussion Paper Series 09-08, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    9. Bourgain, Arnaud & Pieretti, Patrice & Zanaj, Skerdilajda, 2012. "Financial openness, disclosure and bank risk-taking in MENA countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 283-300.
    10. Marcella Mulino, 2002. "On the determinants of capital flight from Russia," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 148-169, June.
    11. Dennis P J Botman & Cees G H Diks, 2002. "Location of Investors and Capital Flight," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-013/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Regimes, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Africa," Working Papers wp55, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    13. Edward F. Buffie, 2003. "Tight Money, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-6.
    14. Hasnul, Al Gifari & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Role of instability in affecting capital flight magnitude: An ARDL bounds testing approach," MPRA Paper 72086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Robert M. Buckley & Ashna Singh Mathema, 2008. "Real Estate Regulations in Accra: Some Macroeconomic Consequences?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(11), pages 2249-2271, October.
    16. Léonce Ndikumana, 2001. "Financial Markets and Economic Development in Africa," Working Papers wp17, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    17. Hamid E. Ali, 2013. "Estimate of The Economic Cost of Armed Conflict: A Case Study From Darfur," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 503-519, December.
    18. Gunter, Frank R., 2004. "Capital flight from China: 1984-2001," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 63-85, January.

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