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FDI and Trade – Two Way Linkages?

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Noy, Ilan

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the intertemporal linkages between FDI and disaggregated measures of international trade. We outline a model exemplifying some of these linkages, describe several methods for investigating two-way feedbacks between various categories of trade, and apply them to the recent experience of developing countries. After controlling for other macroeconomic and institutional effects, we find that the strongest feedback between the sub-accounts is between FDI and manufacturing trade. More precisely, applying Geweke (1982)’s decomposition method, we find that most of the linear feedback between trade and FDI (81%) can be accounted for by Granger-causality from FDI gross flows to trade openness (50%) and from trade to FDI (31%). The rest of the total linear feedback is attributable to simultaneous correlation between the two annual series.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz in its series Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series with number qt778218p6.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt778218p6

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Keywords: financial openness; commercial openness; trade; foreign direct investment;

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  1. Razin, Assaf & Rubinstein, Yona & Sadka, Efraim, 2004. "Which Countries Export FDI, and How Much?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4204, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. A. Chong & C. Calderón, 2000. "Causality and Feedback Between Institutional Measures and Economic Growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 69-81, 03.
  3. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  4. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2004. "A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default, and Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 50-63, June.
  5. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr. & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Expansion Strategies of U.S. Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 8433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Albuquerque, Rui & Loayza, Norman & Serven, Luis, 2003. "World market integration through the lens of foreign direct investors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3060, The World Bank.
  7. Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-115, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
  9. Hoover,Kevin D., 2001. "Causality in Macroeconomics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521002882, April.
  10. Michael Gavin & Ricardo Hausmann & Roberto Perotti & Ernesto Talvi, 1996. "Managing Fiscal Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Volatility, Procyclicality, and Limited Creditworthiness," IDB Publications 6797, Inter-American Development Bank.
  11. Bruce A. Blonigen & Miao Wang, 2004. "Inappropriate Pooling of Wealthy and Poor Countries in Empirical FDI Studies," NBER Working Papers 10378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2004. "Trade and financial development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3347, The World Bank.
  13. Ann E. Harrison & Inessa Love & Margaret S. McMillan, 2002. "Global Capital Flows and Financing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 8887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. César Calderón & Lin Liu, 2002. "The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 184, Central Bank of Chile.
  15. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1978. "A theory of international trade under uncertainty," MPRA Paper 22112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Risk Instability and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment in the Middle East and North Africa Region," IMF Working Papers 04/139, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Deborah L. Swenson, 2004. "Foreign Investment and the Mediation of Trade Flows," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 609-629, 09.
  18. Axel Dreher & Lars Siemers, 2005. "The Intriguing Nexus between Corruption and Capital Account Restrictions," KOF Working papers 05-113, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  19. Michael M Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2-3), pages 27-44, September.
  20. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Joshua Aizenman & Ilan Noy, 2004. "Endogenous Financial and Trade Openness: Efficiency and Political Economy Considerations," Working Papers 200404, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
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