Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Transferts des migrants, ouverture sur l'extérieur et dépenses publiques dans les pays en développement

Contents:

Author Info

  • Christian Ebeke

    (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I)

Abstract

Cet article examine l'impact des transferts des migrants sur les dépenses publiques dans les économies du monde en développement. Nous testons l'argument selon lequel, il s'opère une substitution partielle entre l'assurance publique et l'assurance privée qu'offrent les transferts des migrants dans les pays ouverts sur l'extérieur. La capacité des transferts des migrants à effectivement jouer ce rôle d'assurance contre les chocs, est évaluée en construisant des mesures de cyclicité des transferts des migrants vis-à-vis du PIB réel qui ont l'avantage de pouvoir varier par pays et par année. Il apparaît que la contracyclicité des transferts des migrants concerne à peu près la moitié des pays de l'échantillon et qu'elle a été particulièrement marquée durant le milieu des années 1990. Par ailleurs, nos estimations économétriques montrent que l'ouverture commerciale est une variable déterminante pour expliquer la contracyclicité des transferts. Ensuite, sur la base d'un modèle théorique simple inspiré de Rodrik (1998) et d'estimations économétriques à partir d'un échantillon de 67 pays en développement, nous montrons d'une part que l'ouverture commerciale exerce bien une pression à la hausse des dépenses publiques et d'autre part, que cet impact décroît avec le niveau de transferts des migrants reçus. Il apparaît en outre que c'est véritablement lorsque les transferts des migrants sont contracycliques qu'ils conduisent à une baisse de la consommation publique.// Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of remittances on government size in developing countries. We test the hypothesis that there is a partial substitution between public insurance by government spending and a private insurance by remittances in more opened countries. The insurance role of remittances is evaluated by computing yearly panel data coefficients of remittances' cyclicality with respect to real GDP cycle. It appears that remittances are become more countercyclical during 1990s. Moreover, there is a strong association between trade openness and the countercyclicality of remittances received by developing countries. From a simple theoretical model close to Rodrik (1998) one and on the basis of econometric estimations using a large sample of developing countries (67) and a dynamic panel data estimator, we find that trade openness is positively associated to government spending and this impact decreases with the level of remittances received. Moreover, it is when remittances are effectively countercyclical that the mechanisms described here operate.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/55/29/83/PDF/2010.11.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00552983.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 06 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00552983

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00552983/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

Related research

Keywords: transferts des migrants; ouverture; consommation publique; cyclicite;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2008. "Worker remittances and government behaviour in the receiving countries," MERIT Working Papers 029, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  2. Dean Yang, 2008. "International Migration, Remittances and Household Investment: Evidence from Philippine Migrants' Exchange Rate Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 591-630, 04.
  3. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers 125, Center for Global Development.
  5. Lisa Chauvet & Sandrine Mesplé-Somps, 2006. "Impact des financements internationaux sur les inégalités des pays en développement," Working Papers DT/2006/18, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
  6. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Pozo, Susan, 2004. "Workers' Remittances and the Real Exchange Rate: A Paradox of Gifts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1407-1417, August.
  7. Giuliano, Paola & Ruiz-Arranz, Marta, 2006. "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 2160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
  9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:351-364 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Jihad Dagher & Ralph Chami & Peter Montiel & Yasser Abdih, 2008. "Remittances and Institutions," IMF Working Papers 08/29, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Timothy Halliday, 2005. "Migration, Risk and Liquidity Constraints in El Salvador," Working Papers 200511, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics, revised 28 Mar 2006.
  12. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," NBER Working Papers 12117, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
  14. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  15. Neagu , Ileana C. & Schiff, Maurice, 2009. "Remittance stability, cyclicality and stabilizing impact in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5077, The World Bank.
  16. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
  17. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  18. Samir Jahjah & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development," IMF Working Papers 03/189, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
  20. Christian Hubert Ebeke, 2010. "The Effect of Remittances on Child Labor: Cross-Country Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 351-364.
  21. Bugamelli, Matteo & Paternò, Francesco, 2009. "Do Workers' Remittances Reduce the Probability of Current Account Reversals?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1821-1838, December.
  22. Gyan Pradhan & Mukti Upadhyay & Kamal Upadhyaya, 2008. "Remittances and economic growth in developing countries," European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 497-506.
  23. Valerie Koechlin & Gianmarco Leon, 2007. "International Remittances and Income Inequality: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 123-141.
  24. Yves Bourdet & Hans Falck, 2006. "Emigrants' remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 267-284.
  25. Raju Jan Singh & Markus Haacker & Kyung-woo Lee & Ma�lan Le Goff, 2011. "Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 20(2), pages 312-340, March.
  26. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
  27. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Aggarwal, Reena & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2006. "Do workers'remittances promote financial development ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3957, The World Bank.
  29. Aghion, Philippe & Marinescu, Ioana, 2007. "Cyclical Budgetary Policy and Economic Growth: What Do We Learn From OECD Panel Data?," Scholarly Articles 3350066, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  30. Edwards, Alejandra Cox & Ureta, Manuelita, 2003. "International migration, remittances, and schooling: evidence from El Salvador," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 429-461, December.
  31. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paternò, 2008. "Output growth volatility and remittances," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 673, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  32. Rodrik, Dani, 1996. "Why do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  34. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
  35. Gupta, Sanjeev & Pattillo, Catherine A. & Wagh, Smita, 2009. "Effect of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 104-115, January.
  36. Woodruff, Christopher & Zenteno, Rene, 2007. "Migration networks and microenterprises in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 509-528, March.
  37. Dilip Ratha, 2006. "Leveraging remittances for development," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, pages 173-185.
  38. Serdar Sayan, 2006. "Business Cycles and Workers' Remittances," IMF Working Papers 06/52, International Monetary Fund.
  39. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Ranciere, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Scholarly Articles 12490419, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  40. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. TCHAMANBÉ DJINÉ Louise, TDL & MIAMO WENDJI Clovis, MWC, 2012. "Transferts Financiers des Migrants et développement en Afrique subsaharienne," MPRA Paper 38139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Rémi Generoso, 2012. "Transferts de fonds et résilience des pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest face à la variabilité des précipitations : une perspective macroéconomique," Working Papers hal-00830021, HAL.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00552983. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.