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Remittances, Countercyclicality, Openness and Government Size

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  • Christian Hubert EBEKE

    (International Monetary Fund and Centre d’Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether remittance inflows reduce the elasticity of government size with respect to trade openness. Put differently, the paper tests the hypothesis that there is a partial substitution between public insurance through government spending and a private insurance through remittances in more open countries. The insurance role of remittances is evaluated by computing annual panel data coefficients of remittance cyclicality with respect to the real GDP cycle. It appears that remittances have become more countercyclical during the end 1990s. Moreover, the trade openness, natural disasters, inflation and the shallowness nature of the financial system are among the main determinants of the countercyclicality of remittance inflows. From a simple theoretical model close to Rodrik (1998) and on the basis of econometric estimations using a large sample of developing countries (66), it appears that the positive impact of trade openness on government spending decreases with the level of remittances received. Moreover, it is when remittances are effectively countercyclical that the mechanism described here works.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2011044.

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Length: 26
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2011044

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Keywords: remittances; countercyclicality; openness; government consumption;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Adolfo Barajas & Ralph Chami & Christian Ebeke & Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, 2012. "Workers’ Remittances: An Overlooked Channel of International Business Cycle Transmission?," IMF Working Papers 12/251, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian Hubert & Etoundi, Sabine Mireille Ntsama & Yogo, Thierry Urbain, 2014. "Are Remittances and Foreign Aid a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks in Developing Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 81-98.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge against Food Price Shocks?," IMF Working Papers 12/67, International Monetary Fund.

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