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Transferts de fonds et résilience des pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest face à la variabilité des précipitations : une perspective macroéconomique

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  • Rémi Generoso

    ()
    (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines : EA4457)

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    Abstract

    L'objectif de cet article est d'évaluer l'impact économique des transferts de fonds issus de la migration dans les pays d'Afrique de l'Ouest caractérisés par une forte irrégularité inter-annuelle de la pluviométrie. Plus précisément, nous cherchons à vérifier si les transferts de fonds répondent aux chocs pluviométriques et comment cet ajustement impacte les performances macroéconomiques de ces pays. Nous estimons un modèle VAR en panel (PVAR) entre 1975 et 2009 sur huit pays africain divisés entre deux sous climats : un premier climat de type sahélien et sec et un second climat soudanien plus humide. Nos résultats montrent que la variabilité des précipitations impacte négativement l'activité économique et positivement les transferts de fonds dans les pays sahéliens. En retour, les chocs positifs sur les transferts de fonds augmentent les importations agricoles dans ces mêmes pays, plus vulnérables à la variabilité des précipitations.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00830021.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00830021

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    Keywords: transferts de fonds ; variabilité des précipitations ; Afrique de l'Ouest ; PVAR ; filtre de Kalman;

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