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Incidental Trends and the Power of Panel Unit Root Tests

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  • Hyungsik Roger Moon
  • Benoit Perron
  • Peter C.B. Phillips

Abstract

The asymptotic local power of various panel unit root tests are investigated. The (Gaussian) power envelope is obtained under homogeneous and heterogeneous alternatives. The envelope is compared with the asymptotic power functions for the pooled t- test, the Ploberger-Phillips (2002) test, and a point optimal test in neighborhoods of unity that are of order n^(1/4)T^(-1) and n^(1/2)T^(-1); depending on whether or not incidental trends are extracted from the panel data. In the latter case, when the alternative hypothesis is homogeneous across individuals, it is shown that the point optimal test and the Ploberger-Phillips test both achieve the power envelope and are uniformly most powerful, in contrast to point optimal unit root tests for time series. Some simulations examining the finite sample performance of the tests are reported.

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File URL: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/economics/IEPR/Working%20Papers/IEPR_05.38_%5BMoon,Perron,Phillips%5D.pdf
File Function: First version, 2005
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR) in its series IEPR Working Papers with number 05.38.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:scp:wpaper:05-38

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Keywords: Asymptotic power envelope; common point optimal test; heterogeneous alternatives; incidental trends; local to unity; power function; panel unit root test;

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References

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  1. Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, 07.
  2. Moon, Hyungsik & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Panels with Incidental Trends," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt3f55r5mj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  3. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  4. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
  5. Benoit Perron & Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2007. "An empirical analysis of nonstationarity in a panel of interest rates with factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 383-400.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Benoit Perron & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "Incidental Trends and the Power of Panel Unit Root Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1435, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2003. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1390, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  9. Phillips, Peter C. B., 2002. "New unit root asymptotics in the presence of deterministic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 323-353, December.
  10. Evans, G B A & Savin, N E, 1984. "Testing for Unit Roots: 2," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1241-69, September.
  11. Dufour, Jean-Marie & King, Maxwell L., 1991. "Optimal invariant tests for the autocorrelation coefficient in linear regressions with stationary or nonstationary AR(1) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 115-143, January.
  12. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Benoit Perron, 2008. "Asymptotic local power of pooled t-ratio tests for unit roots in panels with fixed effects," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 80-104, 03.
  15. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  16. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
  17. repec:wop:humbsf:1999-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Breitung, Jörg, 1999. "The local power of some unit root tests for panel data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,69, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  19. repec:fth:calaec:6-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  21. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  22. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  23. Elliott, Graham, 1999. "Efficient Tests for a Unit Root When the Initial Observation Is Drawn from Its Unconditional Distribution," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(3), pages 767-83, August.
  24. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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