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Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Panels with Incidental Trends

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Author Info
Hyungsik R. Moon (Dept. Economics, UCLA, Santa Barbara)
Peter C.B. Phillips () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

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Abstract

It is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator of a local to unity parameter can be consistently estimated with panel data when the cross section observations are independent. Consistency applies when there are no deterministic trends or when there is a homogeneous deterministic trend in the panel model. When there are heterogeneous deterministic trends the panel MLE of the local to unity parameter is inconsistent. This outcome provides a new instance of inconsistent ML estimation in dynamic panels, and, unlike earlier results of this type, applies when both T approaches infinity and N approaches infinity.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1246.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue (1999), 61: 711-747
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1246

Note: CFP 999.
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Related research
Keywords: Deterministic trends; dynamic panels; incidental parameters; inconsistent maximum likelihood estimator; local to unity; nonstationary panel data;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Alvarez, J. & Arellano, M., 1998. "The Time Series and Cross-Section Asymptotics of Dynamic Panel Data Estimators," Papers 9808, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
    Other versions:
  2. Stock, James H., 1991. "Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 435-459, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "How to Estimate Autoregressive Roots Near Unity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1191, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Phillips, Peter C B & Xiao, Zhijie, 1998. " A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 423-69, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jinyong Hahn & Guido Kuersteiner, 2002. "Asymptotically Unbiased Inference for a Dynamic Panel Model with Fixed Effects when Both "n" and "T" Are Large," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1639-1657, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Christopher L. Cavanagh & Graham Elliott & James Stock, 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-29, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  9. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chin Chin Lee, 1996. "Efficiency Gains from Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1134, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Efficient Detrending In Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 519-548, August. [Downloadable!]
  11. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hyungsik R. Moon & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999. "Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity Using Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1224, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hyungsik Roger Moon, 2000. "GMM Estimation of Autoregressive Roots Near Unity with Panel Data," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0913, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Moon, H.R. & Perron, B., 2002. "Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Win Chou & Dominica Lee, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 423-439, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Benoit Perron & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2005. "Incidental Trends and the Power of Panel Unit Root Tests," IEPR Working Papers 05.38, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1438, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Jun 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jukka Topi & Jouko Vilmunen, 2001. "Transmission of monetary policy shocks in Finland: evidence from bank level data on loans," Working Paper Series 100, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2005. "Estimation of average local-to-unity roots in heterogenous panels," International Finance Discussion Papers 852, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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