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How to Estimate Autoregressive Roots Near Unity

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  • Phillips, Peter C.B.
  • Moon, Hyungsik R.

Abstract

A new model of near integration is formulated in which the local to unity parameter is identifiable and consistently estimable with time series data. The properties of the model are investigated, new functional laws for near integrated time series are obtained, and consistent estimators of the localizing parameter are constructed. The model provides a more complete interface between I(0) and I(1) models than the traditional local to unity model and leads to autoregressive coefficient estimates with rates of convergence that vary continuously between the O(/n) rate of stationary autoregression, the O(n) rate of unit root regression and the power rate of explosive autoregression. Models with deterministic trends are also considered, least squares trend regression is shown to be efficient, and consistent estimates of the localising parameter are obtained for this case as well. Conventional unit root tests are shown to be consistent against local alternatives in the new class.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara in its series University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt87p2z8zx.

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Date of creation: 09 Aug 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt87p2z8zx

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Keywords: How to Estimate Autoregressive Roots Near Unity;

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  1. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 468-497, December.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
  3. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  4. Moon, Hyungsik R. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Estimation of Autoregressive Roots near Unity using Panel Data," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara qt7fd8x80m, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  6. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University 932, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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