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On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies

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  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

This paper provides a novel dataset of time-varying measures of social spending cyclicality for an unbalanced panel of 45 developing economies from 1982 to 2012. More specifically, we focus on four categories of government social expenditure: health, social protection, pensions and education. We find that social spending has generally been acyclical over time in developing countries, with the exception of spending on pensions.However, sample averages high marked heterogeneity across countries with the majority showing procyclical behaviour in different social spending categories. In addition,by means of weighted least squares panel regressions with country and time effects, we find that the degree of social spending [pro]cyclicality is generally negatively associated with financial deepening, the level of economic development, trade openness, government size as well as political constraints on the executive.

Suggested Citation

  • João Tovar Jalles, 2019. "On the Cyclicality of Social Expenditure: New Time-Varying evidence from Developing Economies," Working Papers REM 2019/82, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0822019
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    Cited by:

    1. Schlicht, Ekkehart, 2006. "VC - A Method For Estimating Time-Varying Coefficients in Linear Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 61656, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    2. Idrys Fransmel Okombi, 2021. "Non-Linear Response of Fiscal Policy to the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1097-1112.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    education; health; pensions; time-varying coefficients; weighted least squares; financial development; institutions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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