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Business Cycles and Fiscal Policies: the Role of Institutions and financial Markets

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  • César Calderón
  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Abstract

Macroeconomic policies are designed to stabilize business cycle fluctuations. Usually, fiscal and monetary policies in industrial countries have been expansionary in response to weak domestic conditions. However, the cyclical properties of fiscal policies are a much more disputed issue among emerging market economies. Several researchers have attributed these differences in cyclical behavior to: (a) factors associated to a weak institutional framework that play a key role in explaining sub-optimal policy decisions, and (b) factors associated to weak integration (or access) to either domestic or international financial markets. The goal of the present paper is to empirically evaluate whether the ability of countries to conduct countercyclical fiscal policy is affected by the quality of their institutions and/or by the availability of financial resources either in domestic or international capital markets. Our empirical evaluation yields a more nuanced interpretation to the existing evidence: (1) countries are unable to conduct counter-cyclical fiscal policies if they have poor institutions or lack wide access to credit markets at home and abroad, and (2) institutional factors have a larger weight than financial variables in explaining the differences in cyclical behavior of fiscal policy between industrial and developing countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 481.

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Date of creation: Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:481

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000465, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
  3. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 1999. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 26, pages 1671-1745 Elsevier.
  4. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 285, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2012. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," Working Paper Series rwp12-011, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 604, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Vulentin, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos A & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality," Scholarly Articles 8694931, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

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