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The determinants of public deficit volatility

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  • Agnello, Luca
  • Sousa, Ricardo M.

Abstract

This paper empirically analyzes the political, institutional and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed from 1980 to 2006, we show that higher public deficit volatility is typically associated with higher levels of political instability and less democracy. In addition, public deficit volatility tends to be magnified for small countries, in the outcome of hyper-inflation episodes and for countries with a high degree of openness. JEL Classification: E31, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Agnello, Luca & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2009. "The determinants of public deficit volatility," Working Paper Series 1042, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091042
    Note: 1145200
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    Cited by:

    1. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
    2. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
    3. Hodula Martin & Pfeifer Lukáš, 2018. "Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 18(3), pages 195-224, September.
    4. Naotaka Sugawara, 2014. "From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/043, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carine Meyimdjui, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," CERDI Working papers halshs-01457366, HAL.
    6. Eugenia-Ramona Mara, 2012. "Determinants of fiscal budget volatility in old versus new EU member states," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/31, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    7. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Fiscal Consolidation and Income Inequality," NIPE Working Papers 34/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Gadong Toma Dalyop, 2017. "Determinants of Fiscal Deficit in Conflict-affected States in Africa," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 69-95, January.
    9. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2021. "Determinants of budget deficits: Focus on the effects from the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2105.14959, arXiv.org.
    10. Anwar, Mumtaz & Ahmad, Munazza, 2012. "Political determinants of budget deficit in Pakistan: An empirical investigation," HWWI Research Papers 135, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    11. Levy, Antoine & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "How Does Fiscal Consolidation Impact on Income Inequality?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(4), pages 702-726, December.
    13. Dragan Tevdovski & Petar Jolakoski & Viktor Stojkoski, 2022. "Determinants Of Budget Deficits: The Effects Of The Covid-19 Crisis," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(232), pages 105-126, January –.
    14. Océane Blomme & Jérôme Héricourt, 2023. "Inequality, Current Account Imbalances and Middle Incomes," Working Papers 2023-11, CEPII research center.
    15. Tuomas Peltonen & Ricardo Sousa & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2012. "Investment in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 97-119, August.
    16. Miklós Losoncz & Csaba G. Tóth, 2020. "Government Debt Reduction in the Old EU Member States: Is This Time Different?," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(2), pages 28-54.
    17. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Deep Roots of Fiscal Behavior," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(2), pages 5-33, November.
    18. Albuquerque, Bruno, 2011. "Fiscal institutions and public spending volatility in Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2544-2559.
    19. Carine Meyimdjui, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers halshs-01457366, HAL.
    20. Carine MEYIMDJUI, 2017. "Food Price Shocks and Government Expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Countries," Working Papers 201703, CERDI.
    21. Lucia Mihóková & Radovan Dráb & Andrea Kralik, 2019. "Determinants of Short-term Fiscal Imbalance: the Role of Tax Evasion as Fiscal Determinant Within European Countries," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 67(2), pages 515-534.
    22. Carine Meyimdjui, 2020. "Imported Food Price Shocks and Socio-Political Instability: Do Fiscal Policy and Remittances Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2020/248, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    institutions; political instability; public deficit; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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