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Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles

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  • Graciela L. Kaminsky

Abstract

The latest boom in commodity prices fueled concerns about fiscal policies in commodity-exporting countries, with many claiming that it triggered loose fiscal policy and left no funds for a rainy day. This paper examines the links between fiscal policy and terms-of-trade fluctuations using a sample of 74 countries, both developed and developing. It finds evidence that booms in the terms of trade do not necessarily lead to larger government surpluses in developing countries, particularly in emerging markets and especially during capital flow bonanzas. This is not the case in OECD countries, where fiscal policy is of an acyclical nature.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15780.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15780

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  1. Alberto Alesina & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "Why is fiscal policy often procyclical?," Levine's Bibliography 784828000000000465, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Paul Cashin & Christopher J. Kent, 2003. "The Response of the Current Account to Terms of Trade Shocks: Persistence Matters," IMF Working Papers 03/143, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2004. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Depth," NBER Working Papers 10532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Paul R. Masson & Morris Goldstein & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1991. "Characteristics of a Successful Exchange Rate System," IMF Occasional Papers 82, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1999. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 95-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 14321, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2011. "Rent-seeking distortions and fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 30-46, September.
  13. César Calderón & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2003. "Macroeconomic Policies and Performance in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 217, Central Bank of Chile.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Andrés Velasco, 2011. "Was This Time Different?: Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics," BIS Working Papers 365, Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Sebastian Sosa & Gustavo Adler, 2011. "Commodity Price Cycles: The Perils of Mismanaging the Boom," IMF Working Papers 11/283, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Carlos Caceres & Leandro Medina, 2012. "Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 12/260, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Issouf Samaké & Nicola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 12/112, International Monetary Fund.

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