Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles
In: Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks
Abstract
The latest boom in commodity prices fueled concerns about fiscal policies in commodity-exporting countries, with many claiming that it triggered loose fiscal policy and left no funds for a rainy day. This paper examines the links between fiscal policy and terms-of-trade fluctuations using a sample of 74 countries, both developed and developing. It finds evidence that booms in the terms of trade do not necessarily lead to larger government surpluses in developing countries, particularly in emerging markets and especially during capital flow bonanzas. This is not the case in OECD countries, where fiscal policy is of an acyclical nature.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
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This chapter was published in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.) Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages , 2010.
This item is provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Annual Conference Volume with number acv2009-14.
Handle: RePEc:rba:rbaacv:acv2009-14
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Related research
Keywords: commodity prices; terms of trade; fiscal policy; capital flows; panel data;Other versions of this item:
- Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2010. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles," NBER Working Papers 15780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
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