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Effect of International Commodity Price Shocks on Public Finances in Africa

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  • Dakpoulé Da
  • Mahamadou Diarra

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic responses to commodity price shocks with a focus on fiscal variables in a sample of thirty-three African commodity-dependent countries. Using the heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach developed by Pedroni, we find that government revenues as well as government expenditures react to commodity export prices shock. However, there is a large degree of heterogeneity across countries. Following country characteristics, we find that the response of fiscal variables is higher for countries dependent on extractive commodities than those dependent on agricultural ones. We also highlight the benefits of flexible exchange rate regimes for accommodating external shocks and ensuring macroeconomic stability, which in turn is beneficial to government revenue mobilization. Our results suggest that the African government should seize commodities as an opportunity and increase their efforts in revenue mobilization during price booms and make a productive investment to isolate their finances from commodity price collapses.

Suggested Citation

  • Dakpoulé Da & Mahamadou Diarra, 2023. "Effect of International Commodity Price Shocks on Public Finances in Africa," Public Finance Review, , vol. 51(2), pages 236-261, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:pubfin:v:51:y:2023:i:2:p:236-261
    DOI: 10.1177/10911421221137426
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international commodity price; public finances; SVAR panel; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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