IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2010-251.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Lopez Murphy
  • Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte
  • Mr. Rolando Ossowski

Abstract

This paper analyzes recent fiscal policies of nonrenewable resource exporting countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in the context of sharp swings in resource prices. Fiscal policies were predominantly procyclical during the boom period 2003-08 but to significantly differing degrees within the sample. Countries that pursued more conservative fiscal policies during the boom were then able to implement countercyclical fiscal policies during the downturn; moreover, they reduced or maintained their fiscal vulnerability to resource shocks, while their long-term fiscal sustainability positions improved or were broadly unchanged. However, these dimensions of fiscal policy did not seem to be linked to fiscal rules or resource funds, as countries with such institutions displayed a broad range of fiscal responses to the recent cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=24342
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Optimal Tradeoffs Between Citizen Dividends, P," CEPR Discussion Papers 6954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Annalisa Fedelino & Mark A Horton & Anna Ivanova, 2009. "Computing Cyclically-Adjusted Balances and Automatic Stabilizers," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 09/05, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
    5. Mr. Thomas Baunsgaard, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Nigeria: Any Role for Rules?," IMF Working Papers 2003/155, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, 2008. "Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?," IMF Working Papers 2008/137, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Anthony Venables & Rick Van der Ploeg, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for resrouce-ruch developing countries," OxCarre Working Papers 009, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    9. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mr. Jens R Clausen, 2008. "Calculating Sustainable Non-mineral Balances as Benchmarks for Fiscal Policy: The Case of Botswana," IMF Working Papers 2008/117, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Enrique Alberola & Manuel Montero, 2006. "Debt Sustainability and Procyclical Fiscal Policies in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 157-193, August.
    12. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 179-206.
    13. Christian Daude & Ángel Melguizo & Alejandro Neut, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and Sustainable at Last?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 291, OECD Publishing.
    14. repec:idb:brikps:78971 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Stéphane Carcillo & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 2007/080, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Arezki, Rabah & Ismail, Kareem, 2013. "Boom–bust cycle, asymmetrical fiscal response and the Dutch disease," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 256-267.
    17. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/126, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Mr. Ghiath Shabsigh & Mr. Nadeem Ilahi, 2007. "Looking Beyond the Fiscal: Do Oil Funds Bring Macroeconomic Stability?," IMF Working Papers 2007/096, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski & Mr. Theo Thomas & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2008. "Managing the Oil Revenue Boom: The Role of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Occasional Papers 2008/003, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ms. Annalisa Fedelino & Mr. Mark A Horton & Anna Ivanova, 2009. "Computing Cyclically-Adjusted Balances and Automatic Stabilizers," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2009/005, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
    23. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2010/028, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rolando Ossowski & Havard Halland, 2016. "Fiscal Management in Resource-Rich Countries," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 24577, December.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    3. Eduardo Engel & Christopher Neilson & Rodrigo Valdés, 2013. "Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 10, pages 393-425, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Taguchi, Hiroyuki & Ganbayar, Javkhlan, 2022. "An econometric study on the classification and effectiveness of natural resource funds," MPRA Paper 114392, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2022. "The impact of commodity price volatility on fiscal balance and the role of real interest rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1375-1402, September.
    6. Dakpoulé Da & Mahamadou Diarra, 2023. "Effect of International Commodity Price Shocks on Public Finances in Africa," Public Finance Review, , vol. 51(2), pages 236-261, March.
    7. Elva Bova & Paulo Medas & Tigran Poghosyan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(9), pages 103-122, May.
    8. Rudy Laguna Inocente & Álvaro Orozco Ávalos & Madeherick Bejarano Pacheco, 2018. "Mining investment and a fiscal regime that promotes the investment: an inter-temporal model," Revista de Análisis Económico y Financiero, Universidad de San Martín de Porres, vol. 1(01), pages 25-41.
    9. Naotaka Sugawara, 2014. "From Volatility to Stability in Expenditure: Stabilization Funds in Resource-Rich Countries," IMF Working Papers 2014/043, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ossowski, Rolando & Gonzáles-Castillo, Alberto, 2012. "Manna from Heaven: The Impact of Nonrenewable Resource Revenues on Other Revenues of Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4045, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Hamed Ghiaie & Hamidreza Tabarraei & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2021. "Financial rigidities and oil‐based business cycles," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5183-5196, October.
    12. Julia Bersch & Tara M. Sinclair, 2011. "Mongolia: Measuring the Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 2011/079, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Hoda Youssef & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2018. "Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy," Working Papers 1175, Economic Research Forum, revised 29 Mar 2008.
    14. Martín Ardanaz & Ana Corbacho & Alberto Gonzales & Nuria Tolsa Caballero, 2015. "Structural Fiscal Balances in Latin America and the Caribbean: New Dataset and Estimations," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 89816, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Céspedes, Luis Felipe & Velasco, Andrés, 2014. "Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 92-106.
    16. Monoj Kumar Majumder & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignani, 2020. "Commodity price volatility, fiscal balance and real interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2020-79, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    17. Makhlouf, Yousef & Kellard, Neil M. & Vinogradov, Dmitri, 2017. "Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 144-156.
    18. Dina Azhgaliyeva, 2013. "What Makes Oil Revenue Funds Effective," International Conference on Energy, Regional Integration and Socio-economic Development 6023, EcoMod.
    19. Ardanaz, Martín & Corbacho, Ana & Gonzales, Alberto & Tolsa Caballero, Nuria, 2015. "Structural Fiscal Balances in Latin America and the Caribbean: New Dataset and Estimations," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6989, Inter-American Development Bank.
    20. Hiroyuki Taguchi & Javkhlan Ganbayar, 2022. "Natural Resource Funds: Their Objectives and Effectiveness," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-20, September.
    21. Issouf Samaké & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 2012/112, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Carlos Caceres & Serhan Cevik & Ricardo Fenochietto & Borja Gracia, 2015. "The Day After Tomorrow: Designing an Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Libya," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(4), pages 32-50, June.
    23. Carneiro,Francisco Galrao & Garrido,Leonardo, 2015. "New evidence on the cyclicality of fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7293, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2013. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 117-173, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Behavior in Developing Oil-Producing Countries: An Empirical Review," Working Papers 638, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    4. Ms. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2011/171, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Scholarly Articles 8694932, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    8. Enrique Alberola & Manuel Montero, 2006. "Debt Sustainability and Procyclical Fiscal Policies in Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 157-193, August.
    9. Ms. Juliana Dutra Araujo, 2009. "Fiscal Cycles in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2009/158, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Serhan Cevik & Vibha Nanda, 2020. "Riding the storm: fiscal sustainability in the Caribbean," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 384-399, May.
    11. Irene Yackovlev & Victor Duarte Lledo & Lucie Gadenne, 2009. "Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa: Facts and Factors," IMF Working Papers 2009/274, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Enrique Alberola & Iván Kataryniuk & Ángel Melguizo & René Orozco, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and the Cycle in Latin America: the Role of Financing Conditions and Fiscal Rules," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 101-116, November.
    13. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal Policy in Oil-exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 567-590, August.
    14. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(4), pages 536-562.
    15. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash, 2013. "Optimal fiscal policy and different degrees of access to international capital markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 336-352.
    16. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Oil price shocks and macroeconomic adjustments in oil-exporting countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 187-210, April.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    19. Guerguil, Martine & Mandon, Pierre & Tapsoba, René, 2017. "Flexible fiscal rules and countercyclical fiscal policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 189-220.
    20. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/251. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.