IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2009-126.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

The paper presents numerical simulations of various fiscal rules for oil-producing countries. Welfare implications are sensitive to the choice of the social welfare function, initial conditions, and non-oil growth prospects. The distribution of non-oil wealth is important for countries with relatively low oil reserves. Corrections for adjustment costs and uncertainty with respect to oil prices should be applied carefully. While avoiding sharp changes in the fiscal policy stance may be appealing, it is not necessarily optimal if the initial position is unsustainable. Ad hoc rules are shown to perform poorly. The analysis abstracts from several issues critical for developing a practical policy advice and should not be treated as a complete framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/126, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/126
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=23019
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony, 2008. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues in Developing Economies: Sovereign Wealth Funds and Optimal Tradeoffs Between Citizen Dividends, P," CEPR Discussion Papers 6954, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Eduardo E Engel, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2000/118, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Stéphane Carcillo & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Catch-Up Growth, Habits, Oil Depletion, and Fiscal Policy: Lessons from the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 2007/080, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Alonso A Segura Vasi, 2006. "Management of Oil Wealth Under the Permanent Income Hypothesis: The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe," IMF Working Papers 2006/183, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Jan-Peter Olters, 2007. "Old Curses, New Approaches? Fiscal Benchmarks for Oil-Producing Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2007/107, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Mr. Ludvig Söderling & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Martin Petri & Mr. Martin Hommes & Ms. Manal Fouad & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2007. "Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East," IMF Working Papers 2007/012, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mr. Jan-Peter Olters & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2006. "Natural-Resource Depletion, Habit Formation, and Sustainable Fiscal Policy: Lessons from Gabon," IMF Working Papers 2006/193, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Etibar Jafarov, 2007. "Alternative Fiscal Rules for Norway," IMF Working Papers 2007/241, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ibrahim Elbadawi & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Raimundo Soto, 2015. "Why do Countries have Fiscal Rules?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(3), pages 28-61, December.
    2. Eduardo Engel & Christopher Neilson & Rodrigo Valdés, 2013. "Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 10, pages 393-425, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Keyra Primus, 2016. "Fiscal Rules for Resource Windfall Allocation: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," IMF Working Papers 2016/188, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Adedoyin Festus Fatai & Liu Cheol & Adeniyi Oluwatosin A. & Kabir Muhammad, 2017. "Oil rents and fiscal balance in oil dependent economies: do fiscal rules matter?," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(8), pages 176-201, August.
    5. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    6. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2017. "Does the design of a fiscal rule matter for welfare?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 226-237.
    7. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Stuart Landon and Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    9. Sayadi, Mohammad & Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa, 2020. "Assessing Alternative Investment Policies in a Resource-Rich Capital-Scarce Country: Results from a DSGE analysis for Iran," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2013. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 5, pages 117-173, Central Bank of Chile.
    11. Rouhollah Shahnazi & Mohsen Renani & Rahim Dalali Esfahani & Rahman Khoshakhlagh & Mohamad Vaez, 2011. "Optimal Fiscal Policy with Oil Revenues," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 16(2), pages 73-88, spring.
    12. Iacono, Roberto, 2017. "A comparison of fiscal rules for resource-rich economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 179-193.
    13. Issouf Samaké & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 2012/112, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Djiofack, Calvin Z. & Omgba, Luc Désiré, 2011. "Oil depletion and development in Cameroon: A critical appraisal of the permanent income hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7202-7216.
    2. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Ploeg, 2013. "Official forecasts and management of oil windfalls," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(5), pages 827-866, October.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Islamic Republic of Iran: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2008/285, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Mr. Jens R Clausen, 2008. "Calculating Sustainable Non-mineral Balances as Benchmarks for Fiscal Policy: The Case of Botswana," IMF Working Papers 2008/117, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Torfinn Harding & Frederick Van der Ploeg, 2009. "Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations," CESifo Working Paper Series 2830, CESifo.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Chad: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2009/067, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Basem Ertimi & Tamat Sarmidi & Norlin Khalid & Mohd Helmi Ali, 2021. "The Policy Framework of Natural Resource Management in Oil-Dependence Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-17, February.
    8. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Amin Karimu & George Adu & George Marbuah & Justice Tei Mensah & Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah, 2017. "Natural Resource Revenues and Public Investment in Resource-rich Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 107-130, November.
    10. Stuart Landon and Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    11. Mr. Paulo A Medas & Ms. Daria V Zakharova, 2009. "A Primeron Fiscal Analysis in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2009/056, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Paul Collier & Anthony Venables & Rick Van der Ploeg & Michael Spence, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    14. Malova, Aleksandra & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 27-40.
    15. Mr. Ludvig Söderling & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Martin Petri & Mr. Martin Hommes & Ms. Manal Fouad & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2007. "Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East," IMF Working Papers 2007/012, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Ilkin Sabiroglu & Samad Bashirli & Faiq Qasimli, 2011. "Creating a Favourable Deployment Mechanism of Oil and Gas Revenues with Regard to Volatile Oil Prices: The Case of Azerbaijan," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(1), pages 179-199, September.
    17. Iacono, Roberto, 2017. "A comparison of fiscal rules for resource-rich economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 179-193.
    18. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mr. Mauricio Villafuerte & Mr. Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2010/251, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Thomas McGregor, 2017. "Fiscal Options for Absorbing a Windfall of Natural Resource Revenues – A CGE Model of Oil Discovery in Uganda," OxCarre Working Papers 186, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    20. Eduardo Engel & Christopher Neilson & Rodrigo Valdés, 2013. "Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 10, pages 393-425, Central Bank of Chile.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/126. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.