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Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Ludvig Söderling
  • Mrs. Hanan Morsy
  • Mr. Martin Petri
  • Mr. Martin Hommes
  • Ms. Manal Fouad
  • Wojciech Maliszewski

Abstract

Public debt in the Middle East increased during the mid-1990s mainly because of fiscal expansions. It decreased in recent years, thanks to high oil revenue, economic growth, some primary non-oil fiscal adjustment, and debt relief. While countries in the Middle East appear to have adequately reacted to high indebtedness in the past, public debt levels remain uncomfortably high in many, particularly non-oil producing countries and middle income oil producers. Non-oil countries adjust mainly by increasing revenues, whereas oil countries adjust expenditure. For non-oil producing countries, substantial fiscal adjustment would be needed to bring debt down to below 50 percent of GDP. Oil producers as a group appear to follow sustainable, though procyclical, fiscal policies. Middle-income (but not high-income) oil producing countries would need to adjust somewhat to bring their policies in line with the permanent oil income benchmark.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Ludvig Söderling & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Martin Petri & Mr. Martin Hommes & Ms. Manal Fouad & Wojciech Maliszewski, 2007. "Public Debt and Fiscal Vulnerability in the Middle East," IMF Working Papers 2007/012, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2007/012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Cyclicality of Fiscal Behavior in Developing Oil-Producing Countries: An Empirical Review," Working Papers 638, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Jan 2011.
    2. S M Ali Abbas & Nazim Belhocine & Asmaa El-Ganainy & Mark Horton, 2011. "Historical Patterns and Dynamics of Public Debt—Evidence From a New Database," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 717-742, November.
    3. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
    4. Luis N. Lanteri, 2016. "La política fiscal en economías exportadoras de materias primas. Evidencia para Argentina," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, June.
    5. Ms. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2011/171, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2009. "Fiscal Policy Rules for Oil-Producing Countries: A Welfare-Based Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2009/126, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2021. "$$r-g," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 197-229, March.
    8. Mr. Paolo Mauro & Jing Zhou, 2020. "r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?," IMF Working Papers 2020/052, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    10. Garcia-Kilroy, Catiana & Silva, Anderson Caputo, 2011. "Reforming government debt markets in MENA," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5611, The World Bank.

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    Keywords

    WP; revenue; GDP; debt ratio; balance;
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