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Boom–bust cycle, asymmetrical fiscal response and the Dutch disease

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  • Arezki, Rabah
  • Ismail, Kareem

Abstract

This paper investigates the changes in expenditure policy in oil-exporting countries during boom–bust in commodity price cycles, and their implications for real exchange rate movements. To do so, we introduce a Dutch disease model with downward rigidities in government spending to revenue shocks. This model leads to a decoupling between real exchange rate and commodity export price movement during busts. We test our model's theoretical predictions and underlying assumptions using panel data for 32 oil-exporting countries over the period 1992 to 2009. Results are threefold. First, we find that changes in current spending have a stronger impact on real exchange rate compared to capital spending. Second, we find that current spending is downwardly sticky, but increases in boom time, and conversely for capital spending. Third, we find limited evidence that fiscal rules have helped reduce the degree of responsiveness of current spending during booms. In contrast, we find evidence that fiscal rules are associated with a significant reduction in capital expenditure during busts while responsiveness to booms is more muted. This raises concerns on potential adverse consequences of this asymmetry on economic performance in oil-exporting countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 101 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 256-267

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:101:y:2013:i:c:p:256-267

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec

Related research

Keywords: Fiscal asymmetry; International trade; Dutch disease; Exhaustible resources;

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References

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  1. Markus Bruckner & Rabah Arezki, 2010. "International Commodity Price Shocks, Democracy, and External Debt," IMF Working Papers 10/53, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impacton Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund.
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  4. Fabrizio Balassone & Maura Francese, 2004. "Cyclical asymmetry in fiscal policy, debt accumulation and the Treaty of Maastricht," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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  13. Eduardo M.R.A. Engel & Rodrigo Valdés, 2000. "Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 78, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  14. Dermot Gately, 1993. "The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of World Oil Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 163-182.
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  16. Mauricio Villafuerte & Rolando Ossowski & Theo Thomas & Paulo A. Medas, 2008. "Managing the Oil Revenue Boom," IMF Occasional Papers 260, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Marcela Eslava, 2006. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: Survey," IDB Publications 40058, Inter-American Development Bank.
  18. Philip Keefer & Stephen Knack, 2007. "Boondoggles, Rent-Seeking, and Political Checks and Balances: Public Investment under Unaccountable Governments," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 566-572, August.
  19. van Wijnbergen, Sweder J G, 1984. "The 'Dutch Disease': A Disease after All?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(373), pages 41-55, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Mustapha K. Nabli & Rabah Arezki, 2012. "Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth," IMF Working Papers 12/111, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "How Can Commodity Exporters Make Fiscal and Monetary Policy Less Procyclical?," Scholarly Articles 4735392, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  3. Riman, Hodo B. & Akpan, Emmanuel S. & Offiong, Amenawo I, 2013. "Asymetric Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Exchange Rate Volatility and Domestic Investment in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 53282, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Aug 2013.
  4. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: the Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 604, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Working Paper Series 11-012, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  7. Jimena Zúñiga & Marcelo Capello & Inés Butler & Nester Grión, 2013. "A Cycle-Adjusted Fiscal Rule for Sustainable and More Equitable Growth in Argentina," IDB Publications 82358, Inter-American Development Bank.
  8. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mauricio Villafuerte & Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster," IMF Working Papers 10/251, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey of Diagnoses and Some Prescriptions," Working Paper Series rwp12-014, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  11. Carlos Gustavo Cano, . "Regla fiscal y estabilidad macroeconómica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 607, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Nese Erbil, 2011. "Is Fiscal Policy Procyclical in Developing Oil-Producing Countries?," IMF Working Papers 11/171, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Rabah Arezki & Mustapha K. Nabli, 2012. "Natural Resources, Volatility, and Inclusive Growth: Perspectives from the Middle East and North Africa," OxCarre Working Papers 086, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  14. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
  15. Gurvich, E. & Prilepskiy, I., 2010. "What Determined the Depth of Recession?," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 8, pages 55-79.
  16. Ahmed Saber, Mahmud & Syed Abul, Basher, 2014. "Price volatility and the political economy of resource-rich nations," MPRA Paper 56564, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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