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Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?

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  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
  • Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

Abstract

Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Ivanna Vladkova Hollar, 2008. "Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?," IMF Working Papers 2008/137, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2008/137
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    14. Valdivia, Daney, 2014. "Posición fiscal, monetaria y control de la brecha inflacionaria y del producto: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia [Fiscal - monetary stance and inflation - output gap control: evidence for Bolivia]," MPRA Paper 60713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    18. Valdivia, Daney & Loayza, Lilian, 2012. "Transformación económica desde la óptica fiscal. ¿Puede existir un equilibrio entre el corto, mediano y largo plazo para fomentar el desarrollo? [Fiscal view of economic transformation: Can exist a," MPRA Paper 43087, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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