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Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

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  • Alfred A. Haug

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Ian P. King

    ()
    (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne)

Abstract

We examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment in the long run, using quarterly US data from 1952 to 2010. Using a band-pass filter approach, we find strong evidence that a positive relationship exists, where inflation leads unemployment by some 3 to 3 1/2 years, in cycles that last from 8 to 25 or 50 years. Our statistical approach is atheoretical in nature, but provides evidence in accordance with the predictions of Friedman (1977) and the recent New Monetarist model of Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright (2011): the relationship between inflation and unemployment is positive in the long run.

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File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1109.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1109.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1109

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Keywords: Inflation; Unemployment; Long-Run Phillips Curve;

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References

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  1. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2008. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  2. Fisher, Mark E & Seater, John J, 1993. "Long-Run Neutrality and Superneutrality in an ARIMA Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 402-15, June.
  3. Richard Rogerson, 2010. "Indivisible Labor, Lotteries and Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 250, David K. Levine.
  4. Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright, 2002. "A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis," Working Paper 0211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  5. Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen, 1987. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," UCLA Economics Working Papers 496, UCLA Department of Economics.
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  7. Barry Z. Cynamon & Donald H. Dutkowsky & Barry E. Jones, 2006. "Redefining the Monetary Agggregates: A Clean Sweep," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 661-672, Fall.
  8. Shi Shouyong, 1997. "Search for a Monetary Propagation Mechanism," Working Papers 966, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Dong, Mei, 2011. "Inflation And Unemployment In Competitive Search Equilibrium," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S2), pages 252-268, September.
  11. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  12. Lee, Junsoo & Strazicich, Mark C, 2001. " Break Point Estimation and Spurious Rejections with Endogenous Unit Root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 535-58, December.
  13. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
  14. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  15. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  16. Peter N. Ireland, 1998. "Does the Time-Consistency Problem Explain the Behavior of Inflation in the United States?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 415, Boston College Department of Economics.
  17. Doyle, Matthew & Falk, Barry L., 2004. "Testing Commitment Models of Monetary Policy: Evidence from OECD Economies," Staff General Research Papers 11995, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  18. Farmer, Roger E A, 2000. "Natural Rate Doubts," CEPR Discussion Papers 2426, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Geweke, John F, 1986. "The Superneutrality of Money in the United States: An Interpretation of the Evidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-21, January.
  20. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1754-1792, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2009. "Inflation and unemployment in the long run," IEW - Working Papers 442, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.

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