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Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data

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Abstract

Band spectral regression with deterministic and stochastic trends is considered. It is shown that conventional trend removal by regression in the time domain prior to band spectral regression leads to biased and inconsistent estimates of the parameters in a model with frequency dependent coefficients. Time domain and frequency domain procedures for dealing with this problem are examined. Trend removal in the frequency domain produces unbiased estimates and is recommended. An asymptotic theory is developed and the two cases of stationary data and cointegrated nonstationary data are compared. Efficient band spectral regression estimators and associated inferential methods are provided for models with deterministic and stochastic trends. Some supporting Monte Carlo evidence is presented. An empirical application to the present value model of stock prices is discussed. After removing trends in the frequency domain, we show that, while stock prices and dividends have significant coherence at low frequencies, transitory fluctuations in dividends (i.e., less than 3 years) do not have significant coherence with stock price movements.

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  • Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1163
    Note: CFDP 1039.
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    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chin Chin Lee, 1996. "Efficiency Gains from Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Peter C.B. Phillips & Victor Solo, 1989. "Asymptotics for Linear Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 932, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Spectral Regression for Cointegrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 872, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-1354, November.
    6. Xiao, Zhijie & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Higher-order approximations for frequency domain time series regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 297-336, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Band spectral regression; deterministic and stochastic trends; nonstationary time series; integrated process; present value model of stock prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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