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Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run

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Author Info
Aleksander Berentsen () (Department of Economics, University of Basel)
Guido Menzio () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
Randall Wright () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

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Abstract

We study the long-run relation between money, measured by inflation or interest rates, and unemployment. We first discuss data, documenting a strong positive relation between the variables at low frequencies. We then develop a framework where both money and unemployment are modeled using explicit micro-foundations, integrating and extending recent work in macro and monetary economics, and providing a unified theory to analyze labor and goods markets. We calibrate the model, to ask how monetary factors account quantitatively for low-frequency labor market behavior. The answer depends on two key parameters: the elasticity of money demand, which translates monetary policy to real balances and profits; and the value of leisure, which affects the transmission from profits to entry and employment. For conservative parameterizations, money accounts for some but not that much of trend unemployment — by one measure, about 1/5 of the increase during the stagflation episode of the 70s can be explained by monetary policy alone. For less conservative but still reasonable parameters, money accounts for almost all low-frequency movement in unemployment over the last half century.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania in its series PIER Working Paper Archive with number 08-012.

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Length: 74 pages
Date of creation: 18 Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:08-012

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Related research
Keywords: inflation; unemployment; search;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Guillaume Rocheteau, 2008. "Money and competing assets under private information," Working Paper 0802, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aleksander Berentsen & Mariana Rojas Breu & Shouyong Shi, 2009. "Liquidity, innovation and growth," IEW - Working Papers iewwp441, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Guillaume Rocheteau & Peter Rupert & Randall Wright, 2007. "Inflation and Unemployment in General Equilibrium," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 07-07, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Scott J. Dressler, 2009. "Money Holdings, Inflation, and Welfare in a Competitive Market," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 2, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Guillaume Rocheteau, 2009. "A monetary approach to asset liquidity," Working Paper 0901, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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