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Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Guido Menzio
Shouyong Shi

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Abstract

We build a directed search model of the labor market in which workers' transitions between unemployment, employment, and across employers are endogenous. We prove the existence, uniqueness and efficiency of a recursive equilibrium with the property that the distribution of workers across employment states does not affect the agents' values and strategies. Because of this property, we are able to compute the equilibrium outside the non-stochastic steady-state. We use a calibrated version of the model to measure the effect of productivity shocks on the US labor market. We find that productivity shocks generate procyclical fluctuations in the rate at which unemployed workers become employed and countercyclical fluctuations in the rate at which employed workers become unemployed. Moreover, we find that productivity shocks generate large countercyclical fluctuations in the number of vacancies opened for unemployed workers and even larger procyclical fluctuations in the number of vacancies created for employed workers. Overall, productivity shocks alone can account for 80 percent of unemployment volatility, 30 percent of vacancy volatility and for the nearly perfect negative correlation between unemployment and vacancies.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Toronto, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number tecipa-327.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: 12 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-327

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Related research
Keywords: Directed search; On the Job Search; Business Cycles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Postel-Vinay, Fabien & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mortensen, Dale T., 1994. "The cyclical behavior of job and worker flows," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1121-1142, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Dale Mortensen & Eva Nagypal, 2007. "More on Unemployment and Vacancy Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(3), pages 327-347, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Shouyong Shi, 2006. "Directed Search for Equilibrium Wage-Tenure Contracts," Working Papers tecipa-260, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2009. "Block Recursive Equilibria for Stochastic Models of Search on the Job," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Margaret Stevens, 2004. "Wage-Tenure Contracts in a Frictional Labour Market: Firms' Strategies for Recruitment and Retention," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 535-551, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Guido Menzio, 2007. "A Theory of Partially Directed Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 748-769, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ken Burdett & Melvyn Coles, 2003. "Equilibrium Wage-Tenure Contracts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1377-1404, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hall, Robert & Krueger, Alan B., 2008. "Wage Formation between Newly Hired Workers and Employers: Survey Evidence," IZA Discussion Papers 3775, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Kenneth Burdett & Shouyong Shi & Randall Wright, 2001. "Pricing and Matching with Frictions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(5), pages 1060-1085, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Montgomery, James D, 1991. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion and Interindustry Wage Differentials," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(1), pages 163-79, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Espen R. Moen & Asa Rosén, 2004. "Does Poaching Distort Training?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(4), pages 1143-1162, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Krause, Michael & Lubik, Thomas A., 2007. "On-the-job search and the cyclical dynamics of the labor market," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Alain Delacroix & Shouyong Shi, 2006. "Directed Search On The Job And The Wage Ladder," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 651-699, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March. [Downloadable!]
  18. Barlevy, Gadi, 2002. "The Sullying Effect of Recessions," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(1), pages 65-96, January.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Aleksander Berentsen & Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2009. "Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Kiel Working Papers 1501, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Menzio, Guido & Moen, Espen R, 2008. "Worker Replacement," CEPR Discussion Papers 7075, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Shouyong Shi, 2008. "Directed Search for Equilibrium Wage-Tenure Contracts," Working Papers tecipa-343, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Guido Menzio & Eric Smith, 2009. "Job Search with Bidder Memories," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-027, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2009. "Block Recursive Equilibria for Stochastic Models of Search on the Job," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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