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GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks both under the null and the alternative hypotheses

Author

Listed:
  • Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre

    (AQR Research Group, Departament of Econometrics, Statistics and Spanish Economy, University of Barcelona)

  • Dukpa Kim

    (Department of Economics, University of Virginia)

  • Pierre Perron

    (Department of Economics, Boston University)

Abstract

Perron (1989) introduced unit root tests valid when a break at a known date in the trend function of a time series is present, which are invariant to the magnitude of the shift in level and/or slope and to allow them under both the null and alternative hypotheses. The subsequent literature devised procedures valid in the case of an unknown break date. However, in doing so most, in particular the commonly used test of Zivot and Andrews (1992), assumed that if a break occurs it does so only under the alternative hypothesis of stationarity. This is undesirable for several reasons. Kim and Perron (2007) developed a methodology that allows a break at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses. When a break is present, the limit distribution of the test is the same as in the case of a known break date allowing increased power while maintaining the correct size. We extend their work in several directions: 1) we allow for an arbitrary number of changes in both the level and slope of the trend function; 2) we adopt the quasi-GLS detrending method advocated by Elliott et al. (1996) which permits tests that have local asymptotic power functions close to the local asymptotic Gaussian power envelope; 3) we consider a variety of tests, in particular the class of M-tests introduced in Stock (1999) and analyzed in Ng and Perron (2001).

Suggested Citation

  • Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Dukpa Kim & Pierre Perron, 2007. "GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks both under the null and the alternative hypotheses," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2008-019
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    2. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "Testing for unit roots in time series models with non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 919-947, October.
    3. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2007. "A simple modification to improve the finite sample properties of Ng and Perron's unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 12-19, January.
    4. Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1588, December.
    5. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    8. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 2000. "Spurious Rejections by Perron Tests in the Presence of a Break," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(3), pages 433-444, July.
    9. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2006. "Estimating restricted structural change models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 373-399, October.
    10. Busetti, Fabio & Harvey, Andrew, 2008. "Testing For Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 72-87, February.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    13. Tae‐Hwan Kim & Stephen J. Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2000. "Spurious Rejections by Perron Tests in the Presence of a Break," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(3), pages 433-444, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    2. Alfred A. Haug & Ian P. King, 2011. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1128, The University of Melbourne.
    3. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2011. "Testing For Unit Roots In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend And Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 957-991, October.
    4. jair Ojeda Joya, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity and Breaking Trend Functions in the Real Exchange Rate," Borradores de Economia 5521, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Pierre Perron, 2010. "A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 305-328, September.
    6. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
    7. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Unit root testing under a local break in trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 140-167.
    8. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "The Flexible Fourier Form and Local GLS De-trended Unit Root Tests," Working Papers w200919, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    multiple structural breaks; unit root; GLS detrending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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