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Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis

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  • Terence Mills

Abstract

The unit root testing within a breaking trend framework for global and hemispheric temperatures of Gay-Garcia, Estrada and Sánchez Clim Chang 94:333–349, 2009 is extended in two directions: first, the extended HadCRUT3 temperature series from Brohan et al. J Geophys Res 111:D12106, 2006 are used and, second, new breaking trend estimators and unit root tests are employed, along with direct modelling of breaking trend and unit root processes for the series. Some differences to the results of Gay-Garcia et al. are found: break dates are shifted to 1976 for global and northern hemisphere temperatures and to 1964 for the southern hemisphere. Although the results are somewhat ambiguous, global and northern hemisphere temperatures are probably best modelled by unit root processes with a break in drift, while southern hemisphere temperatures follow a breaking trend process with stationary fluctuations about this trend. Irrespective of the models selected, there is little evidence of trend warming before the breaks, i.e., until the third quarter of the 20th century, and after the breaks northern hemisphere and global trend temperatures warm quicker than in the southern hemisphere, the range being between 0.01 and 0.02 °C per annum. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Terence Mills, 2013. "Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 745-755, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:118:y:2013:i:3:p:745-755
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0672-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Claudio, Morana & Giacomo, Sbrana, 2017. "Some Financial Implications of Global Warming: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 377, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 25 Dec 2017.
    3. Umberto Triacca, 2016. "Measuring the Distance between Sets of ARMA Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-11, July.
    4. Kim, Dukpa & Oka, Tatsushi & Estrada, Francisco & Perron, Pierre, 2020. "Inference related to common breaks in a multivariate system with joined segmented trends with applications to global and hemispheric temperatures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 130-152.
    5. Claudio, Morana & Giacomo, Sbrana, 2017. "Some Financial Implications of Global Warming: An Empirical Assessment," Working Papers 377, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 25 Dec 2017.
    6. Morana, Claudio & Sbrana, Giacomo, 2019. "Climate change implications for the catastrophe bonds market: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 274-294.
    7. Dukpa Kim & Tatsushi Oka & Francisco Estrada & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Inference Related to Common Breaks in a Multivariate System with Joined Segmented Trends with Applications to Global and Hemispheric Temperatures," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2017-003, Boston University - Department of Economics.

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