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Do Worker Remittances Reduce Output Volatility in Developing Countries?

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Abstract

Remittance inflows have increased considerably in recent years and are large relative to the size of many recipient economies. The theoretical and empirical effects of remittance inflows on output growth volatility are, however, ambiguous. On the one hand, remittances have been a remarkably stable source of income, relative to other private and public flows, and they seem to be compensatory in nature, rising when the home country’s economy suffers a downturn. On the other hand, the labor supply effects induced by altruistic remittances could cause the output effects associated with technology shocks to be magnified. This paper finds robust evidence for a sample of 70 remittance-recipient countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility, thereby supporting the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Williams College in its series Center for Development Economics with number 2010-01.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wil:wilcde:2010-01

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Keywords: Remittances; output volatility; developing countries;

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  1. Furceri, Davide & Karras, Georgios, 2007. "Country size and business cycle volatility: Scale really matters," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 424-434, December.
  2. Aggarwal, Reena & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad, 2006. "Do workers'remittances promote financial development ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3957, The World Bank.
  3. Neagu , Ileana C. & Schiff, Maurice, 2009. "Remittance stability, cyclicality and stabilizing impact in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5077, The World Bank.
  4. Matteo Bugamelli & Francesco Paternò, 2008. "Output growth volatility and remittances," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 673, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Growth Volatility and Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 10560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jihad Dagher & Ralph Chami & Peter Montiel & Yasser Abdih, 2008. "Remittances and Institutions," IMF Working Papers 08/29, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "Diversification and development," Working Papers 03-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  8. Dalia S. Hakura, 2009. "Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries: What Explains the “Great Moderation” of 1970-2003?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(3), pages 229-254, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Abida Zouheir & Imen Mohamed Sghaier, 2014. "Remittances, Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of North African Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(51), pages 137-170, March.
  2. Serge REY, 2011. "La Macroéconomie des PSEM : état des lieux et relations avec l'Union européenne," Working Papers 2011-2012_3, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Dec 2011.
  3. Eduardo Fernández-Arias & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2010. "Global Financial Safety Nets: Where Do We Go from Here?," IDB Publications 39318, Inter-American Development Bank.
  4. Mthuli Ncube & Zuzana Brixiova, 2013. "Working Paper 188 - Remittances and their Macroeconomic Impact: Evidence from Africa," Working Paper Series 996, African Development Bank.
  5. Carl Davidson & Nicholas Sly, 2013. "A Simple Model of Globalization, Schooling and Skill Acquisition," CESifo Working Paper Series 4394, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Giulia Bettin & Andrea Filippo Presbitero & Nikola Spatafora, 2014. "Remittances and vulnerability in developing countries," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 93, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  7. Eller, Markus & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Fungácová , Zuzana, 2013. "Fiscal policy and regional output volatility: Evidence from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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