Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Seasonality, Forecast Extensions and Business Cycle Uncertainty

Contents:

Author Info

  • Proietti, Tommaso

Abstract

Seasonality is one of the most important features of economic time series. The possibility to abstract from seasonality for the assessment of economic conditions is a widely debated issue. In this paper we propose a strategy for assessing the role of seasonal adjustment on business cycle measurement. In particular, we provide a method for quantifying the contribution to the unreliability of the estimated cycles extracted by popular filters, such as Baxter and King and Hodrick-Prescott. The main conclusion is that the contribution is larger around the turning points of the series and at the extremes of the sample period; moreover, it much more sizeable for highpass filters, like the Hodrick-Prescott filter, which retain to a great extent the high frequency fluctuations in a time series, the latter being the ones that are more affected by seasonal adjustment. If a bandpass component is considered, the effect has reduced size. Finally, we discuss the role of forecast extensions and the prediction of the cycle. For the time series of industrial production considered in the illustration, it is not possible to provide a reliable estimate of the cycle at the end of the sample.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/20868/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20868.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 21 Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20868

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Linear filters; Unobserved Components; Seasonal Adjustment; Reliability.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. J. Durbin, 2002. "A simple and efficient simulation smoother for state space time series analysis," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 603-616, August.
  2. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, October.
  3. William R. Bell & Donald E. K. Martin, 2004. "Computation of asymmetric signal extraction filters and mean squared error for ARIMA component models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 603-623, 07.
  4. Neil Shephard & Jurgen Doornik & Siem Jan Koopman, 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  5. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0417, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  7. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  8. [Reference to Proietti], Tommaso, 2000. "Comparing seasonal components for structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 247-260.
  9. Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
  10. Pollock, D. S. G., 2003. "Improved frequency selective filters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 279-297, March.
  11. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Measuring seasonality
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2010-03-31 14:05:00

Lists

This item is featured on the following reading lists or Wikipedia pages:
  1. Economic Logic blog

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20868. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.