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Fiscal Policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and Sustainable at Last?

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  • Christian Daude
  • Ángel Melguizo
  • Alejandro Neut

Abstract

This paper analyses fiscal policy for several economies in Latin America, from the early nineties to the 2009 crisis. We present original estimates of cyclically-adjusted public revenues for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay implementing the standardised OECD methodology and extending it to include commodity cycles, which have a direct and significant effect on the fiscal balance of several Latin American countries. Based on these estimates, we evaluate the size of automatic tax stabilisers and the cyclicality of discretionary fiscal policy. Additionally, we highlight the uncertainty stemming from the estimation of the output gap, due to large and simultaneous cyclical, temporary and permanent shocks in several Latin American economies. Cette étude analyse la politique budgétaire dans huit économies d’Amérique Latine, à partir du début des années 1990 et jusqu’à 2009. Nous étudions les estimations des composantes structurelles et cyclique des recettes publiques en l’Argentine, le Brésil, le Chili, la Colombie, le Costa Rica, le Méxique, le Pérou et l’Uruguay, en utilisant la méthodologie de l’OCDE, et en ajoutant l’effet des prix des matières premières, qui ont un impact significatif sur le solde budgétaire en Amérique Latine. A partir de ces résultats, l’étude évalue l'ampleur des stabilisateurs automatiques, et l’stabilisation de la politique budgétaire discrétionnaire. Finalement, nous soulignons l’incertitude de l’estimation de l’écart de production en raison des larges chocs cycliques, temporaires et permanents dans plusieurs économies d’Amérique Latine.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Development Centre Working Papers with number 291.

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Date of creation: 25 Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:291-en

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Related research

Keywords: fiscal policy; public finances; business cycle; politique budgétaire; cycle économique; finances publiques;

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Cited by:
  1. Pablo Lopez Murphy & Mauricio Villafuerte & Rolando Ossowski, 2010. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resource Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 10/251, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Umut Unal, 2011. "Rethinking the Effects of Fiscal Policy on Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Working Papers 1109, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  3. Mauricio Villafuerte & Pablo López-Murphy & Rolando Ossowski, 2011. "Riding the Roller Coaster: Fiscal Policies of Nonrenewable Resources Exporters in Latin America and the Caribbean ," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 609, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Ivanyna, Maksym & von Haldenwang, Christian, 2012. "A comparative view on the tax performance of developing countries: Regional patterns, non-tax revenue and governance," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 6(32), pages 1-44.
  5. Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2011. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and sustainable?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5(14), pages 1-29.

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