Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach
AbstractUnanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks, using sample data from four countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States—two oil-exporting and two non-oil-exporting commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural vector autoregression approach to identify dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long run after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom. IMF Staff Papers (2007) 54, 91–112. doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450001
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.
Volume (Year): 54 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/
Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
You can help add them by filling out this form.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elizabeth Gale).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.