Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Commodity Price Shocks and the Odds on Fiscal Performance: A Structural Vector Autoregression Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Francis Y Kumah
  • John M Matovu
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Unanticipated changes in commodity prices can generate significant movements in fiscal aggregates. This paper seeks to understand the dynamics of these fiscal movements in the context of transitory commodity price shocks, using sample data from four countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States—two oil-exporting and two non-oil-exporting commodity-intensive countries. It adopts a structural vector autoregression approach to identify dynamic effects of commodity price shocks on fiscal performance under two broad tax regimes. Stochastic simulations indicate high probabilities of fiscal overperformance in the short term when commodity prices are high. These probabilities deteriorate significantly, however, in the long run after the transitory positive commodity price shock has dissipated, particularly when lax fiscal policy is adopted during the period of the price boom. IMF Staff Papers (2007) 54, 91–112. doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450001

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v54/n1/pdf/9450001a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v54/n1/full/9450001a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

    Volume (Year): 54 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 1 (May)
    Pages: 91-112

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:54:y:2007:i:1:p:91-112

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/

    Order Information:
    Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
    Email:
    Web: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/pal/subscribe/index.html

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:54:y:2007:i:1:p:91-112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elizabeth Gale).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.