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The macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty

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  • Trung Duc Tran

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty (CPU) shocks. Using Australia as a case study, an econometric-based CPU index is proposed to reveal that Australia has experienced an unprecedented increase in uncertainty from the commodity market recently. Evidence from a VAR model shows that CPU shocks have a larger recessionary impact than other relevant uncertainty shocks such as financial, economic and trade policy uncertainty. The empirical results are then interpreted in a non-linear multisector DSGE model of the Australian economy by estimating key parameters in the DSGE model to match its responses to the VAR responses. CPU shocks in the DSGE model, via foreign commodity export demand with price rigidity, trigger a precautionary response and cause a decline in real economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Trung Duc Tran, 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2021-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-09
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-01/9_2021_tran.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dakpoulé Da & Mahamadou Diarra, 2023. "Effect of International Commodity Price Shocks on Public Finances in Africa," Public Finance Review, , vol. 51(2), pages 236-261, March.
    2. Bermpei, Theodora & Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini & Triantafyllou, Athanasios & Alshalahi, Jebreel, 2023. "Does commodity price uncertainty matter for the cost of credit? Evidence from developing and advanced economies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Price Uncertainty; Small Open Economy; VAR-DSGE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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