IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tcd/tcduee/200211.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Michael B. Devereux
  • Philip R. Lane

Abstract

This paper develops an empirical model of bilateral exchange rate volatility. We conjecture that for developing economies, external financial liabilities have an important effect on desired bilateral exchange rate volatility, above and beyond the standard Optimal Currency Area (OCA) factors. By contrast, industrial countries do not face the same set of constraints in international financial markets. In our theoretical model, external debt tightens financial constraints and reduces the efficiency of the exchange rate in responding to external shocks. We go on to explore the determinants of bilateral exchange rate volatility in a broad cross section of countries. For developing economies, bilateral exchnage rate volatility (relative to creditor countries) is strongly negatively affected by the stock of external debt. For industrial countries however, OCA variables appear more important and external debt is generally not significant in explaining bilateral exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility," Trinity Economics Papers 200211, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:200211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2002_papers/tepno11PL22.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Claudia M. Buch, 2005. "Distance and International Banking," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 787-804, September.
    3. Gerard Caprio & Patrick Honohan, 2008. "Banking Crises," Center for Development Economics 2008-09, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, April.
    6. Alberto Alesina & Robert J. Barro, 2002. "Currency Unions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 409-436.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and intervention: implications of the theory of optimum currency areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 191-209, August.
    9. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2004. "Optimal monetary policy in a currency area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 293-320, July.
    10. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    11. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
    12. Patrick Honohan & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "Pegging to the Dollar and the Euro," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 379-410, November.
    13. Ms. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 2001/046, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    15. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    16. Felipe Larraín B. & José Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
    17. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    18. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    19. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2002. "Dollarization of Liabilities, Net Worth Effects, and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 559-600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 295-330, March.
    21. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    22. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    23. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    24. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
    25. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers: A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2000/088, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    27. Richard Portes & =20 H=E9l=E8ne Rey, 2001. "The Determinants of Cross-Border Equity Flows: The Geography of=20 Information," International Finance 0012002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2001. "A "Vertical" Analysis of Crises and Intervention: Fear of Floating and Ex-ante Problems," NBER Working Papers 8428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. John Shea, 1997. "Instrument Relevance in Multivariate Linear Models: A Simple Measure," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 348-352, May.
    30. Eichengreen, Barry, 2002. "When to Dollarize," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 1-24, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael B. Devereux & Philip R. Lane & Juanyi Xu, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(511), pages 478-506, April.
    2. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    3. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    4. Towbin, Pascal & Weber, Sebastian, 2013. "Limits of floating exchange rates: The role of foreign currency debt and import structure," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 179-194.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico & Reggio, Iliana, 2010. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 659-677, July.
    7. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, March.
    8. Mr. Alejandro Justiniano Espigares & Mr. Selim A Elekdag & Mr. Ivan Tchakarov, 2005. "An Estimated Small Open Economy Model of the Financial Accelerator," IMF Working Papers 2005/044, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regime Choice with Multiple Key Currencies," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp264, IIIS.
    10. Magud, Nicolas E., 2010. "Currency mismatch, openness and exchange rate regime choice," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 68-89, March.
    11. Mandelman, Federico S., 2010. "Business cycles and monetary regimes in emerging economies: A role for a monopolistic banking sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 122-138, May.
    12. Francesco Ferrante & Nils M. Gornemann, 2022. "Devaluations, Deposit Dollarization, and Household Heterogeneity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1336, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Camila Casas & Sergii Meleshchuk & Yannick Timmer, 2020. "The Dominant Currency Financing Channel of External Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 1111, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Fujiki, Hiroshi & Otani, Akira, 2002. "Do Currency Regimes Matter in the 21st Century? An Overview," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 47-79, December.
    16. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December.
    17. Moron, Eduardo & Winkelried, Diego, 2005. "Monetary policy rules for financially vulnerable economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 23-51, February.
    18. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2010. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4215-4281, Elsevier.
    19. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    20. Berg, Andrew & Borensztein, Eduardo & Mauro, Paolo, 2002. "An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcd:tcduee:200211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Colette Angelov (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/detcdie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.