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Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

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Author Info
Justin M. Dubas
Byung-Joo Lee
Nelson C. Mark

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Abstract

We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by assigning country-year observations to the regime with the highest predictive probability obtained from the estimation problem. An econometric investigation into the relationship between exchange rate regimes and GDP growth finds that growth is higher under stable currency-value regimes. Significant asymmetric effects on country growth from not doing what is said are found for nonindustrialized countries. Countries that exhibit `fear of floating' experience significantly higher growth.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11272.

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Date of creation: Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11272

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bordo, Michael D & Flandreau, Marc, 2001. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes and Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 3077, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Alberto Alesina & Alexander Wagner, 2003. "Choosing (And Reneging On) Exchange Rate Regimes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2008, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Grace Juhn & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Simple Sensitivity Analysis," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sebastian Edwards & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers," NBER Working Papers 9867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Kenneth Rogoff & Ashoka Mody & Nienke Oomes & Robin Brooks & Aasim M. Husain, 2003. "Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/243, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 2004. "Exchange-Rate Regimes: "Does What Countries Say Matter?"," HEI Working Papers 07-2004, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. repec:rus:hseeco:123927 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," NBER Working Papers 10015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Michael W. Klein, 2002. "Dollarization and Trade," NBER Working Papers 8879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," NBER Working Papers 4335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2003. "Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 10032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade," NBER Working Papers 10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Working Papers 06.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kathryn M.E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2005. "International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 11353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Uluc Aysun, 2006. "Testing for Balance Sheet Effects in Emerging Market Countries," Working papers 2006-28, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Philipp Harms & Marco Kretschmann, 2007. "Words, deeds, and outcomes: A survey on the growth effects of exchange rate regimes," Working Papers 07.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
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