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Las elecciones y el momento de las devaluaciones

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  • Ernesto H. Stein
  • Jorge M. Streb

Abstract

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presenta un modelo de ciclo político presupuestario racional para una economía abierta en el que las devaluaciones se demoran en el período preelectoral, a fin de aumentar las probabilidades electorales del partido oficialista. Los modelos de ciclos políticos anteriores, al concentrarse en economías cerradas, habían pasado por alto la influencia de las elecciones en el comportamiento de los tipos de cambio. Se introduce la incertidumbre de los electores en dos dimensiones distintas. No sólo hay incertidumbre entre los votantes en cuanto a la competencia de quien ocupa el cargo, sino que tampoco conocen su grado de oportunismo. .

Suggested Citation

  • Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1999. "Las elecciones y el momento de las devaluaciones," Research Department Publications 4165, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4165
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    References listed on IDEAS

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