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"Dumb And Dumber" Explanations For Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Abstract

The failure of the structural monetary model to beat a random walk in out-of-sample forecasting is one of the most celebrated empirical (non) findings in international finance. In this paper we show that this result is an artifact of the way monetary policy is measured. We construct a simple measure of monetary policy based on the narrative approach of Romer & Romer (1989). Using a linear Gaussian autoregressive specification with exogenous variables (ARX), we demonstrate that a structural monetary model with properly measured money does indeed outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasts over a wide range of horizons. We conclude that contrary to the conventional wisdom, money (appropriately defined) is a robust fundamental determinant of short-run exchange rate dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): IV (2001)
Issue (Month): (November)
Pages: 187-216

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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:4:y:2001:n:2:p:187-216

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Keywords: exchange rates; asset prices; monetary policy;

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Flood, R.P. & Rose, A.K., 1992. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," Papers 529, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  4. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
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  9. Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1990. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
  11. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  12. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1996. "The Daily Market for Federal Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(1), pages 26-56, February.
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  16. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  17. Dominguez, K.M.E., 1997. "Monetary Interdependence and Coordination," Working Papers 408, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  18. Westerfield, Janice Moulton, 1977. "An examination of foreign exchange risk under fixed and floating rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 181-200, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Blomberg, S. Brock, 2000. "Modeling political change with a regime-switching model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 739-762, November.
  2. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification," Economics Series Working Papers 2005-W18, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

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