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Is the political business cycle for real?

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  • Blomberg, S. Brock
  • Hess, Gregory D.

Abstract

This paper's macroeconomic model combines features from both real and political business cycle models. It augments a standard real business cycle tax model by allowing for varying levels of government partisanship and competence in order to replicate two important empirical regularities: First, that on average the economy expands early under Democratic presidents and contracts early under Republican presidents. Second, that presidents whose parties successfully retain the presidency have stronger-than-average growth in the second half of their terms. The model generates both of these features in conformity with U.S. post-World War II data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Public Economics.

Volume (Year): 87 (2003)
Issue (Month): 5-6 (May)
Pages: 1091-1121

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Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:87:y:2003:i:5-6:p:1091-1121

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505578

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Batool, Irem & Sieg, Gernot, 2009. "Pakistan, politics and political business cycles," Economics Department Working Paper Series 7, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  2. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2009. "Political ideology and economic freedom across Canadian provinces," Working Papers CEB 09-054.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Kim, Iljoong & Kim, Inbae, 2008. "Interest group pressure explanations for the yen-dollar exchange rate movements: Focusing on the 1980s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 364-382, September.
  4. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
  5. Claudiu-Gabriel Tiganas & Claudiu Peptine, 2012. "Political Business Cycle And Economic Instability - Literature Review," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 853-865, December.
  6. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "The Size and Scope of Government in the US States: Does Party Ideology Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4246, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Robert Grafstein & Kiki Caruson, 2008. "Surprise party," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 315-328, October.
  8. J. Stephen Ferris, 2010. "Fiscal Policy from a Public Choice Perspective," Carleton Economic Papers 10-10, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
  9. Blomberg, S. Brock, 2000. "Modeling political change with a regime-switching model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 739-762, November.

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