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Testing the Positive Theory of Government Finance

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David S. Bizer
Steven N. Durlauf

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Abstract

Researchers characterizing optimal tax policies for dynamic economies have reasoned that optimally chosen tax rates should approximately follow a random walk. Vve conduct a frequency-domain examination of the properties of the tax rate series and conclude that while there is a substantial smoothing role for debt, one rejects the hypothesis that the first difference in the series is white noise. This conclusion follows both from an analysis of the entire spectral distribution function of tax changes as well as from the behavior of individual frequencies. The source of the rejection is pronounced activity of tax changes at an eight year cycle which is suggestive of an electoral component to tax changes. Regression analysis confirms the finding that there is a cyclical component to tax changes corresponding to changes in political party administration. The results suggest that the positive theory of government finance needs to be refined to incorporate features of political equilibrium.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3349.

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Date of creation: May 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3349

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  1. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kingston, Geoffrey H., 1984. "Efficient timing of income taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 271-280, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government and the Benefits of a Constitution," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 367-88, July.
  5. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory Hess, 2001. "Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Velasco, A., 1992. "A Model of Fiscal Deficits and Delayed Fiscal Reforms," Working Papers 92-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alberto Alesina & Gerald D. Cohen & Nouriel Roubini, 1991. "Macroeconomic Policy and Elections in OECD Democracies," NBER Working Papers 3830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Pettersson Lidbom, Per, 2003. "A Test of the Rational Electoral-Cycle Hypothesis," Research Papers in Economics 2003:16, Stockholm University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kevin J. Lansing, 1993. "Dynamic optimal fiscal and monetary policy in a business cycle model with income redistribution," Working Paper 9308, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Atreya Chakraborty & Abdikarim M. Farah, 1996. "Ricardian Equivalence: Further Evidence," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 19-31, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Steven N. Durlauf, 1992. "Spectral Based Testing of the Martingale Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Velasco, A., 1993. "A Model of Endogenous Fiscal Deficits and Delayed Fiscal Reforms," Working Papers 93-04, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  9. W. Robert Reed & Cynthia L. Rogers, 2005. "Tax Burden and the Mismeasurement of State Tax Policy," Public Economics 0505001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andres Velasco, 1997. "A Model of Endogenous Fiscal Deficits and Delayed Fiscal Reforms," NBER Working Papers 6336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Velasco, A., 1998. "Debts and Deficits with Fragmented Fiscal Policymaking," Working Papers 98-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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