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Econometrics and Presidential Elections

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Author Info
Fair, Ray C

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Abstract

This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (Summer)
Pages: 89-102
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:3:p:89-102

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  1. Souren Soumbatiants & Henry Chappell & Eric Johnson, 2006. "Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 207-223, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory Hess, 2001. "Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Rodrigo Cerda & Rodrigo Vergara, 2005. "Business Cycle and Political Election Outcomes: New Evidence from The Chilean Democracy," Documentos de Trabajo 295, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  4. Blendon, Robert J, et al, 1997. "Bridging the Gap between the Public's and Economists' Views of the Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 105-18, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Argentina," RES Working Papers 3078, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  8. John F. Chizmar & Mark S. Walbert, 1999. "Web-Based Learning Environments Guided by Principles of Good Teaching Practice," Journal of Economic Education, Helen Dwight Reid Foundation, vol. 30(3), pages 248-264. [Downloadable!]
  9. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political support for reforms : economics of voting in transition countries," Discussion Paper 98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Leonardo Martinez, 2008. "A theory of political cycles," Working Paper 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  11. Leo Kahane, 2009. "It’s the economy, and then some: modeling the presidential vote with state panel data," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 343-356, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Filip Palda & Kristian Palda, 1998. "The impact of campaign expenditures on political competition in the French legislative elections of 1993," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 157-174, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Irem Batool & Gernot Sieg, 2009. "Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 151-165, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hibbs, Douglas A., 2007. "The Economy, the War in Iraq and the 2004 Presidential Election," MPRA Paper 15910, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market — Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  17. R. Paap & E. van Nierop & H.J. van Heerde & M. Wedel, 2000. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "Don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," Econometric Institute Report 209, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Daniel J. Benjamin & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2006. "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," NBER Working Papers 12660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "La economía política de las políticas de cambio en Argentina," RES Working Papers 3079, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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