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Econometrics and Presidential Elections

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  • Ray C. Fair

Abstract

This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.10.3.89
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (Summer)
Pages: 89-102

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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:3:p:89-102

Note: DOI: 10.1257/jep.10.3.89
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  1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
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