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Econometrics and Presidential Elections

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Author Info
Fair, Ray C

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Abstract

This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 10 (1996)
Issue (Month): 3 (Summer)
Pages: 89-102
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:10:y:1996:i:3:p:89-102

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  1. Blendon, Robert J, et al, 1997. "Bridging the Gap between the Public's and Economists' Views of the Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 105-18, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2000. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Working Paper 0016, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Daniel J. Benjamin & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2006. "Thin-Slice Forecasts of Gubernatorial Elections," NBER Working Papers 12660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz, 2006. "Stock market volatiltity around national elections," MPRA Paper 302, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political support for reforms : economics of voting in transition countries," Discussion Paper 98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Jörg Döpke & Christian Pierdzioch, 2004. "Politics and the Stock Market — Evidence from Germany," Kiel Working Papers 1203, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  7. R. Paap & E. van Nierop & H.J. van Heerde & M. Wedel, 2000. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "Don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," Econometric Institute Report 209, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Leonardo Martinez, 2005. "A theory of political cycles," Working Paper 05-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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