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Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey

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Author Info
 Price, Simon

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Abstract

There is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected, in part, by economic performance, suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage. Simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s, but fell out of fashion with the advent of new-classical economics. However, modern theories of the political business cycle, which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature, assume rational expectations, and lead to forms of political business cycle, driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another. The international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply, although definitive conclusions are--as we might expect--hard to come by. Copyright 1997 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Public Choice.

Volume (Year): 92 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (September)
Pages: 407-27
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Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:92:y:1997:i:3-4:p:407-27

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  1. Burton A. Abrams, 2006. "How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes," Working Papers 06-04, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Verstyuk Sergey, . "Electoral cycles in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 02-209e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pedro Escudero Fernández & Diego Prior, 2002. "Endeudamiento y ciclos políticos presupuestarios: el caso de los ayuntamientos catalanes," Working Papers 200210, Department of Business Economics, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona. [Downloadable!]
  4. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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