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Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984

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  • Alesina, Alberto
  • Sachs, Jeffrey

Abstract

This paper tests the existence and the extent of a politically induced busi ness cycle in the United States in the post-World War II period. The cycle described in this paper is quite different from the traditional "political business cycle" of William Nordhaus. It is based upon t he assumption that Republican and Democratic administrations have fol lowed systematically different monetary policies. The empirical impli cations of the theory are supported by the data. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 20 (1988)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 63-82

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:20:y:1988:i:1:p:63-82

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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References

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  1. Abrams, Richard K & Froyen, Richard & Waud, Roger N, 1980. "Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, Consistent Expectations, and the Burns Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 30-42, February.
  2. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  3. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-80, August.
  4. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
  5. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  6. Stigler, George J, 1973. "General Economic Conditions and National Elections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 160-67, May.
  7. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Thomakos, Dimitrios D, 2008. "Consumer Confidence and Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 6701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jablanović, Vesna D., 2013. "The Government Spending On Agribusiness Sector Model," 50th Anniversary Seminar, Agriculture and Rural Development: Challenges of Transition and Integration Processes, September 27, 2013 161816, University of Belgrade, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture.
  3. Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André & Rijsbergen, David R. & van der Sluis, Pieter Jelle & Vrugt, Evert B., 2010. "Washington meets Wall Street: A closer examination of the presidential cycle puzzle," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  4. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Ellen E. Meade, 2010. "Is There a Limit on FOMC Dissents? Evidence from the Greenspan Era," Working Papers 2010-16, American University, Department of Economics.
  5. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D. Hess, 2001. "Is the Political Business Cycle for Real?," CESifo Working Paper Series 415, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Chang, Koyin & Kim, Yoonbai & Tomljanovich, Marc & Ying, Yung-Hsiang, 2013. "Do political parties foster business cycles? An examination of developed economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 212-226.
  7. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2013. "The size and scope of government in the US states: does party ideology matter?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 687-714, August.
  8. Fox, Gerald T., 2012. "Macroeconomic time consistency and wartime presidential approval," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 891-902.
  9. Ellen E. Meade & D. Nathan Sheets, 2002. "Regional influences on U.S. monetary policy: some implications for Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20091, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Goodell, John W. & Vähämaa, Sami, 2013. "US presidential elections and implied volatility: The role of political uncertainty," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1108-1117.
  11. Blomberg, S. Brock, 2000. "Modeling political change with a regime-switching model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 739-762, November.
  12. Jakob De Haan & Jan Egbert Sturm, 1992. "The Case for Central Bank Independence," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 45(182), pages 305-327.
  13. Jakob De Haan & Jan Egbert Sturm, 1992. "The Case for Central Bank Independence," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 45(182), pages 305-327.
  14. Price, Simon, 1997. " Political Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Credibility: A Survey," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 92(3-4), pages 407-27, September.

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