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Purchasing Power Parity and Markov Regime Switching

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  • Kanas, Angelos
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    Abstract

    We revisit the evidence on PPP in the twentieth century allowing for Markov regime switching in the ADF regression. Using Lopez et al.'s (2005) extension of Taylor's (2002) original data set, our results are: (1) For most countries, there are periods over which the real exchange rate is stationary and PPP holds, and periods over which the real exchange rate is non-stationary and PPP does not hold, namely, regime-dependent stationarity. Thus, real exchange rate stationarity is a stochastic event itself. (2) The probability that the real exchange rate is stationary is less than 50% for most countries. (3) There is evidence of non-stationarity during both the Bretton Woods and the recent float periods for the majority countries. The comparative performance of PPP is slightly better during Bretton Woods than the recent float.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 6 (September)
    Pages: 1669-1687

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    Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:38:y:2006:i:6:p:1669-1687

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    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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    Cited by:
    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:11:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    3. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?," Working Papers halshs-00559170, HAL.
    4. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2012. "Nonlinear liquidity adjustments in the euro area overnight money market," Working Paper Series 1500, European Central Bank.
    5. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007,24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    6. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2009. "What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?," CREATES Research Papers 2009-50, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    7. Emrah Çevik & Erdal Atukeren & Turhan Korkmaz, 2013. "Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 675-695, October.
    8. Yoon, Gawon, 2010. "Do real exchange rates really follow threshold autoregressive or exponential smooth transition autoregressive models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 605-612, March.
    9. Wallace, Frederick, 2009. "Cointegration tests of purchasing power parity," MPRA Paper 18079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gawon Yoon, 2009. "Purchasing power parity and long memory," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 55-61.
    11. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    12. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Dibooglu, Sel, 2013. "Persistence and non-linearity in US unemployment: A regime-switching approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 61-68.
    13. Beaupain, Renaud & Durré, Alain, 2013. "Central bank reserves and interbank market liquidity in the euro area," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 259-284.
    14. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "Real exchange rates and developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 280-299.
    15. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    16. Gawon Yoon, 2009. "Are real exchange rates more likely to be stationary during the fixed nominal exchange rate regimes?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 17-22.
    17. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    18. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2012. "Does extracting inflation from stock returns solve the purchasing power parity puzzle?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 1097-1105, June.

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